Nearly 40% of the world’s countries including India will witness civil unrest in 2020, study claims
Maplecroft’s predictions for 2020 are bleak with both the number of countries witnessing protest and the intensity of unrest tipped to rise
Nearly a quarter of the world's countries saw a surge in civil unrest last year and that figure is likely to rise further in 2020, according to a new study.
Countries categorised as 'extreme risk' included Ethiopia, India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe, reports CNBC.
A co-author of the report identified the 10 countries most at risk of unrest in 2020 as Venezuela, Iran, Libya, Guinea, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Chile, Palestine and Ethiopia, reports Daily mail.
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There are 195 countries in the world, including Vatican and Palestine, and the study has claimed that 47 of those states witnessed a rise in civil unrest in 2019.
The data model, published Thursday by socio-economic and political analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft, has also predicted that in 2020, the number will balloon to 75 countries.
The UK consultancy identified Hong Kong and Chile as the two flashpoints suffering the largest increases in unrest since the beginning of 2019. Neither country is expected to find peace for at least two years, according to the research.
Other areas now considered hotbeds of civil protest include Nigeria, Lebanon and Bolivia.
Since the previous index release, Sudan has overtaken Yemen to become the highest risk country globally.
Sudan has been locked in crisis since ruler Omar al-Bashir was overthrown in April. The country has been beset by protests and killings as military forces battle pro-democracy supporters to control the country.
Conflict in Yemen has been raging since 2015 as Shia and Sunni Muslim forces wrestle for power.
No flash in the pan
Maplecroft's predictions for 2020 are bleak with both the number of countries witnessing protest and the intensity of unrest tipped to rise.
The index predicts that 75 out of the 125 countries examined will see a deterioration in stability. That figure means almost 40% of all the world's 195 nations will witness disruption and protest to some degree.
While the likes of Ukraine, Guinea Bissau and Tajikistan are forecast to experience the biggest rises in unrest, it is larger countries that could prompt the most concern.
The analysis cross references predicted rises in unrest alongside the danger that protesters will suffer human rights abuses or sharp responses from security forces.
Countries identified in this troubling bracket include the highly influential nations of Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Thailand and Brazil.
The UK-based analysts claim that as 2019 is unlikely to be a "flash in the pan," companies and investors will have to adapt to increased unrest.
Maplecroft says there will be increased pressure on global firms to exercise corporate responsibility, especially those in countries "rich in natural resources where mining and energy projects often need high levels of protection."
"However, companies are at substantial danger of complicity if they employ state or private security forces that perpetrate violations," the report added.
