Biden can bring less doom scrolling; Trump’s second term could mean fewer regulations, more trade wars
If Joe Biden wins the race for the US president, his promises to change Corporate America. If Donald Trump secures a second term in the White House, there might be a bid to downsize Big Tech and more strong audience ratings for cable news
If former Vice President Joe Biden wins the race for the US president, his promises to change Corporate America range from more strict regulation on auto emissions to helping lower prices for prescription medicine.
Here are six key industries that could see change under a Joe Biden Administration.
AUTOMAKERS
A Biden victory would make it likely that automakers will once again face tougher carbon emissions targets. But the auto industry could also get more help with a transition to electric vehicles if Biden can deliver on promises to expand electric vehicle tax credits and fund charging infrastructure.
Biden has pledged if elected to reinstate the legal basis for California's zero-emission vehicle rules and begin the process of reversing the Trump administration's decision to ease fuel efficiency and carbon emission requirements through 2025.
Automakers could also face sharply higher penalties for failing to meet fuel-efficiency requirements. The Trump administration rolled back those penalties, which the industry said saved at least $1 billion in annual compliance costs. But a federal appeals court in August reversed the administration action.
However, Biden has promised new tax incentives including rebates to buy EVs and a dramatic expansion of charging stations for electric vehicles - policy measures automakers have long advocated.
Biden's picks to run the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration will be pivotal for the auto industry. A strong advocate of climate action at EPA, and a tough enforcer on vehicle safety at the NHTSA would put more pressure on automakers after four years of relatively hands-off regulation. Automakers could try to use the regulatory reboot to push their case for modernization of both emissions and safety regulations to speed deployment of new technology such as autonomous vehicles.
TECH
A Biden win isn't likely to lift the regulatory cloud over Big Tech, with some Democrats eager to go even further than the Trump Administration in scrutinizing practices at Alphabet Inc's Google, Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc. The Justice Department antitrust lawsuit against Google, filed last month, is expected to continue and could even be broadened.
A Biden Administration and a Democratic Congress could also mean new privacy regulations and a revision of a key law that protects internet companies from liability for the content posted on their services. But tech companies have many friends among Biden advisors, including vice president-elect Kamala Harris, and will fight hard to water down any new laws.
The biggest changes for the tech sector could come on China and trade policy. The fate of China-owned TikTok, if not sealed before Inauguration Day, could be an early test of Biden's approach. Tech companies hope a Biden administration will take a less confrontational approach than Trump, who has sanctioned numerous Chinese tech firms and pushed to sever many of the ties that have long bound US and Chinese tech industries.
Few analysts expect a quick return to warm US-China relations, however. Many Democrats agree that China's tech industry has unfairly benefitted from a protected home market, government subsidies and economic espionage, suggesting the tech cold war will continue.
Tech companies do stand to benefit from a rollback of Trump-era restrictions on worker immigration under a Biden Administration.
But a Biden win will almost certainly mean a higher tax bill: tech companies were among the biggest beneficiaries of Trump's reduction in corporate income tax rates, which Biden is expected to reverse at least in part. Venture capitalists and other tech investors may also take a hit if the controversial "carried interest" provision of the tax code, regarded by critics as a giveaway to the rich, is eliminated.
PHARMACEUTICALS
The pharmaceutical industry has spent millions on lobbying and campaign contributions to head off a push by Congress to slash US drug prices, a possibility that would become more likely if Biden is elected President.
Biden has vowed to reduce drug costs and to allow Medicare, a US government health insurance program, to negotiate drug prices. He has support from Congressional Democrats to pass such legislation, which the Congressional Budget Office has said could cost the industry more than $300 billion by 2029.
One silver lining for the industry is that Biden's promise to expand health insurance coverage to more Americans through the creation of a government run health insurance option could lead to more people being able to afford drugs, boosting demand for drugmakers' products.
MINING
A Biden victory would likely mean an increase in domestic production of lithium, copper and other metals used to make electric vehicles, solar panels and other products crucial to his climate plan.
Where such mines will be developed, though, and how large they will be is likely to be a major point of conflict within a new Biden administration, with his climate plan seemingly at odds with his push to boost US manufacturing.
Biden said little about mining during the presidential campaign, either for or against. But his campaign has been privately telling US miners it would support increased domestic mining, sources have told Reuters.
At the same time, Biden has launched lofty goals of making the US a carbon-neutral nation by 2035, a plan that can only be achieved with wind turbines, solar panels and other materials made from mined rock.
MEDIA
News organizations may see a dip in their audiences if voters elect Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, a career politician whose time in office suggests he is less likely to break presidential norms than Donald Trump.
Biden, who was first elected to the US senate in 1972, has a track record of not generating headlines as frequently as Trump. He is less incendiary than Trump and to date has not used social media to frequently attack rivals or retweet unproven theories, as Trump has.
Yet even if a Biden presidency introduces a return to politics-as-usual, without the uncertainty that characterized much of the past four years, Trump could still generate headlines, via potential post-White House legal battles or remarks on his own platform.
According to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Vanity Fair and Business Insider, investors aligned with the Trump family are exploring opportunities to fund a conservative media venture or Trump-themed media outlet.
If Biden wins, Fox Corp-owned Fox News could still attract a large audience, with the Democratic president's critics rallying the network's largely conservative base. More liberal viewers may have less reason to watch AT&T Inc-owned CNN and Comcast Corp's MSNBC, where anchors such as Don Lemon and Rachel Maddow have covered Trump's misdeeds with outrage since he took office.
To be sure, other national crises will still drive the news cycle no matter who gets elected. With a Covid-19 vaccine not expected to be generally available in the United States until mid-2021, Americans are likely to experience continued travel and other restrictions - homebound and seeking clarity from the media about what happens next.
RETAIL/TRADE
US President Trump has imposed $370 billion in tariffs on goods imported from China, part of his "America First" agenda. Those tariffs on products ranging from handbags to small electronics are estimated to have cost US importers some $61.6 billion through early September, according to US Customs and Border Protection, and have been blamed for eroding US manufacturing competitiveness. Retailers argue the tariffs will result in higher prices for consumers and lost jobs.
"If Biden wins, we expect that he will look to reevaluate the current strategy on trade," said Jonathan Gold, National Retail Federation Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
In general, retailers need a trade policy that provides certainty and stability as they plan supply chains to meet customer needs in a time when Covid-19 is creating more uncertainty, Gold said.
A second Trump term could mean fewer regulations, more trade wars and high TV ratings
If US President Donald Trump secures a second term in the White House, look for an auto emissions battle with California, a bid to downsize Big Tech and more strong audience ratings for cable news.
Here is how a re-election of President Trump could impact six key industries.
AUTOMAKERS
A Trump re-election would leave US automakers caught in the crossfire of a war over climate policy between Washington and the state of California.
California sued Trump for rolling back national vehicle emissions standards and seeking to cancel the state's authority to mandate sales of electric vehicles.
Automakers stand to save billions in compliance costs under Trump's emissions approach. But the clash with California over emissions and electric vehicles has divided automakers. It has also left the industry to deal with two sets of regulations for the increasingly divergent coastal Blue state markets and heartland, Red state markets. Automakers have long advocated resolving differences between California and federal climate policy to create a single, national set of standards to guide their technology investments.
During his first term, Trump put pressure on Detroit automakers to step up investments in the United States, attacking General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co for decisions to close plants, or invest in China and Mexico. Trump periodically threatened German automakers with tariffs. His steel and aluminum tariffs raised costs for US automakers.
PHARMACEUTICALS
Trump has been a vocal critic of high drug prices but experts say the pharmaceutical industry will likely fare better under a Trump second term than they would if Joe Biden wins the White House.
Trump passed a number of executive orders designed to slash drug prices in his first term but experts say they have had little practical impact.
His efforts to spur Congress to pass new laws to reduce drug costs have been much less successful, in part because his own party blocked a bill that would have allowed Medicare, a government health insurance program, to negotiate lower drug prices with pharmaceutical companies.
MINING
Trump, should he win re-election, is expected to continue to slash mining industry regulations and shorten the permitting process, part of a wide-ranging effort to boost domestic production of the minerals used to make electronics, weapons and a host of other goods.
Trump signed several executive orders in his first term that labeled rare earths and other minerals as critical to national defense, ordering the Pentagon to financially support junior projects. The US only has one rare earths mine, though it relies on China for processing. A second Trump term could see multiple new domestic rare earth mines as well as new processing equipment from Rare Element Resources Ltd and others.
At least one mining project could be jeopardized in Trump's new term, however. Alaska's Pebble Mine project, a massive copper and gold deposit in the Bristol Bay watershed, has come under criticism by Trump's son Donald Trump Jr. and Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who have said the mine would destroy areas where they enjoy fishing and hunting. The US Army Corps of Engineers in late August extended its permit review timeline out past the election, a step that came after both privately lobbied the president.
The mine's developer, Vancouver-based Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd, has said the mine can be safely developed. But Alaska's two US senators, both Republicans, have publicly come out against the mine, adding further pressure on Trump to deny it permits.
MEDIA
Media companies are poised to benefit if Trump gets another four years in office, based on demand for TV, print and digital news coverage since his election in 2016.
While news consumers first tuned in for coverage of the outspoken president and his administration, the triple threat of the coronavirus pandemic, an economic crisis, and racial strife have kept them engaged.
The New York Times, for example, saw its digital-only subscriptions grow more than fourfold between the end of the second quarter in 2016 and the same period this year. Shares of the New York Times Co are up more than 250% since election day 2016.
Evening TV news broadcasts have also seen a resurgence, with Comcast-owned NBC, ViacomCBS Inc-owned CBS and Walt Disney Co's ABC experiencing their biggest news audiences in years.
Ratings for cable news networks AT&T-owned CNN, Fox Corp-owned Fox News and Comcast's MSNBC - with their loyal, politically-divided followings - are up 72 percent from last year, according to Nielsen. Fox News was the highest-rated network in all of television for prime-time viewers in July, August and September, per Nielsen.
But despite the uptick in audiences, news organizations continue to suffer from declining advertising revenue, spurred by Alphabet Inc's Google and Facebook Inc, and exacerbated by the pandemic. Many marketers have slashed their advertising budgets, leading news organizations to lay off tens of thousands of employees.
If the negative news cycle continues into a second Trump term, ad dollars may not follow. For years, ad tech firms have offered tools for brands to block ads from appearing on web pages or URLs that include keywords like "shooting" or "murder." These advertising "blacklists" exploded in usage after the 2016 US election, when brands sought to avoid polarizing news stories. Many brands have been reluctant to buy ads against coronavirus and Black Lives Matter coverage.
A second Trump term could help sustain interest in journalism, with an engaged public glued to the news, and a president who has acknowledged his role keeping them there.
"Another reason that I'm going to win another four years is because newspapers, television, all forms of media will tank if I'm not there because without me, their ratings are going down the tubes," Trump said in 2017, according to the New York Times.
RETAIL/TRADE
US President Trump has imposed $370 billion in tariffs on goods imported from China, part of his "America First" agenda. Those tariffs on products ranging from handbags to small electronics are estimated to have cost US importers some $61.6 billion through early September, according to US Customs and Border Protection, and have been blamed for eroding US manufacturing competitiveness. Retailers argue the tariffs will result in higher prices for consumers and lost jobs.
"If Trump wins, he will see the election as a validation of his strategy on trade policy, including his use of tariffs, and will certainly continue to follow this strategy with China," said Jonathan Gold, National Retail Federation Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
The trade organization hopes any new deal can be reached without the threat of tariffs.
TECH
If Trump holds the White House, big tech companies will face continued pressure from regulators on antitrust issues. The Trump administration has already sued Alphabet's Google and a suit against Facebook is said to be coming soon. Should Democrats win the Senate, that could add to the risks for tech, as Democrats are calling for even more scrutiny of practices they say have stifled innovation and reduce competition. Trump may also ramp up his rhetorical war over what he contends is censorship of conservative views on the major social platforms.
The most immediate tech question for Trump will be what to do with TikTok, the Chinese-owned app that his administration says is a security risk that must be transferred to American ownership or banned.
With the election in the rearview, tech companies who depend on China as a supplier or buyer will be watching to see if Trump's approach to trade ratchets up or cools down.