Flawless census a must to get quality data for targeted planning

Bangladesh has a shortage of updated data needed to shape the plans and policies going forward. For this, we need a successful census as so far we have been relying on old data and estimates.

The government needs to ensure that the latest Census yields accurate results-giving quality data. But the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics' (BSS) decision to conduct the census during the rainy season may have backfired.

Floods in the northern regions meant data could not be collected from there on time. This was a Population and Housing Census, but what happens when your house is washed away? So, the census was delayed for flooded areas by a week.

The BBS is set to give a primary report of the findings at the end of this month. But the quality of the data will be significant.

For a census to be successful, three things need to be looked at: how it was collected, how it was compiled, and whether it was published or not.

First, we need to look into how the data was collected. There are 35 questions that need to be asked and we need to see if all those were asked. If not, the government needs to know how the data collectors filled those answers.

A census is not like a survey. A survey uses a sample population, whereas a census includes everyone. So, the data it generates is the most accurate one and is used to inform the government's future plans and policies.

Our first census was in 1974, then it was supposed to happen every 10 years. But the Covid-19 outbreak meant the population census could not be carried out. Afterwards, as it was supposed to be done digitally – with all the information stored in a central server – there were delays over procuring tablets. There were also Cumilla city elections which coincided with the census timing of 15-21 June.

So, the BBS had to extend their deadline by a week. As it is a Population and Household Census, everyone has to be brought under it. It needs to answer questions like what the population level is, how many people there are per household, what type of households they live in, what kind of electricity they use, education level, access to water, source of fuel, source of drinking water and type of sanitation, if anyone is abroad, remittance received in the last two years, the number of foreigners in the country etc.

Using the data, we can figure out the birth rate, death rate, migration levels, male-female ratios, population distribution by division etc. For instance, we don't yet understand the impact Covid-19 had on factors such as the death and birth rates, so the census may help with that too.

So now, three things have to happen. First, the primary census will be gathered. The second step will be the post-enumeration check (PEC) conducted by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, and then the socio-economic and demographic survey will be carried out on a sample population.

The PEC is important because it will show how many people have been left behind in the main census and how they can be brought back. The PEC will adjust the errors and give a more accurate picture.

If we don't have the right data, then we won't know the ground reality. The census is also used to gauge our progress in Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicators.

For the SDG, we need aggregate data, so not at a national level, but also at the local level and only comprehensive data is eligible, not surveys.

Again, we need data for proper planning. Due to Covid-19 we don't have an accurate labour force survey and the household income/expenditure data isn't updated. We are still using the one from around 2017.

Think of it this way. In 2011, our census primarily showed that we had a 14.23 crore population. After PEC, it said the population was higher at 14.98 crore. Now, our focus is GDP per capita. But can we accurately state GDP per capita using the population figures from the 2011 census? Is the population the same in 2022? We aren't clear about the numbers we use to find the figures.

Development and planning needs to be population-focused. Unfortunately, this doesn't happen in our country. Our focus is on GDP growth and economic prosperity.

We can't see development without seeing the quality of people's lives, which is the goal of development.

We need to be informed of population sub groups to know which are vulnerable, what they need and what we can do in that regard.

The PEC check will reveal how well the census was conducted. It can then also be made readily available to be used by researchers, students, professors once the identifiable information is removed for further analysis.

But we need it to be of quality and it has to be accurate. We cannot work with a faulty census so the quality cannot be compromised.

The census is a huge undertaking involving many people. It takes time also. The government has a very important role to play here. But for now, we need to wait for the PEC to make any statement of how good the census was.

Mohammad Mainul Islam, professor and former chairman of Department of Population Sciences, University of Dhaka