Asia to drive global gas demand in 2024 as Europe still recovers

Asia will be the main driver of an expected growth in global natural gas demand this year, as Europe will be slow to recover after its use of the fuel hit the lowest level in nearly three decades.

Overall gas consumption across the globe is seen increasing by 2.5% in 2024, with the Asia-Pacific region adding 4%, followed by gas-rich countries in Africa and the Middle East, the International Energy Agency said in a report on Friday.

Europe's fuel usage is forecast to grow by 3% year-on-year, but that would still be way below the levels before the energy crisis which last year cut demand on the continent to the lowest since 1995.

While demand is improving globally, with European and Asian prices continuing their fall from crisis peaks reached in 2022, a "high level of uncertainty" still dominates the forecasts, the IEA said. Geopolitical tensions and more frequent extreme weather events "could contribute to tighter market conditions and price volatility."

Last year, Europe benefited from a record boost in renewable power generation and its industries recovered gas usage only marginally, according to the report. Gas burn in the power sector will continue to fall this year — by about 10% - partially offsetting possibly higher gas usage by households and businesses.

The IEA's forecast assumes that Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe will remain close to last year's levels, "albeit their profile remains a major uncertainty." LNG imports — which accounted for a record 37% of Europe's supply last year, replacing much of Russian gas — are expected to increase only slightly as a growth in global capacities is capped this year.