Climate has its last laugh to create food havoc

For Moksuda Begum, a sharecropper in a Feni village, both paddy and straw are vital for the food security of her family and cattle. The yield was abundant this year and she decided to leave the harvesting for a day's more sun for a well-dried crop good for storage. But a sudden untimely rain – that continued for the next few days – substantially damaged both her paddy and straw.

Heavy rains in upstream India mean floods in downstream Bangladesh. It starts with Sunamganj, a rice basket in the haor, experiencing flash floods almost every year caused by early rains in Indian hills across the border. The entire Sylhet region this year saw its worst flooding in years from rivers swollen by rain waters from India's Meghalaya and Assam states. Netrokona, Lalmonirhat, Nilphamari and Rangpur were among 17 other districts hit by July flooding caused by heavy rains in India's Sikkim and West Bengal regions.

These floods took a heavy toll on life, livelihoods and infrastructures, and caused extensive damage to crops and livestock, raising worries for future food supplies for paddy farmer Jalal Mia, sheep rearer Chhaya Rani and fish farmer Bandhan Nag – all from Kalmakanda in Netrokona.

Individual worries grow into the national concern for future food security, which is at stake all over the world today.

The peak monsoon season this year was almost dry and any incidence of late monsoon flood will add to crop loss and food worries in Bangladesh as in many parts of the world facing extreme weather conditions.

It seems these extreme events are portends of the inexorable advent of climate change and its impact this year is getting felt acutely in Asia with China having unusually hot weather and Pakistan being flooded after a historic heatwave. China is also preparing for potential disasters feared from torrential rains and floods, which could be the worst in more than a century.

Floods in many parts of India are adding to human misery there. In Europe, Portugal is fighting a wildfire that is proving hard to control.

Torrential rains, under the impact of the La Niña weather system, intensified flooding in Sydney. La Niña climate pattern also impacts South American weather and contributes to a prolonged period of drought in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, affecting crops like maize and soybeans.

Canada may see 28% less wheat crop than last year due to the poor harvest caused by the drought in western part.

All these climate events, harmful for crops, point to a potential food shortage further down the line in vulnerable countries that might grow into a bigger shortage for the whole world.

Food shortage originated from crop losses in major growers of wheat, sunflower, soybean and palm much before the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in February this year, which snapped supplies from the world's two major food baskets. The war has also snapped fertiliser supplies from the two key sources of plant nutrients. Low availability and high price of fertilisers are hampering crop production in many countries including Kenya, where farmers cannot afford to use fertilisers.

As fertiliser prices rose sky high, Bangladesh had to spend more than $4 billion, up by 223% from a year ago, to import fertiliser in the 11 months of the last fiscal year till May.

Fertiliser is subsidised in Bangladesh and high prices put high pressure on the exchequer.

Though rice import dropped by 61%, wheat import surged 20% to more than $2 billion and edible oil imports rose 42% to $2.5 billion during the period.

Crop failure in any country impacts the global supply and price as it prompts food protectionism and deepens the crisis further.

Since the outbreak of the crisis, 27 countries around the world have set up food-related trade barriers, banning or restricting exports of grains, meat, edible oils, vegetables and fruits, and fertilisers, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute.

The protectionist measures were taken to secure domestic market supply, which led to supply crunch and price hikes worldwide.

Drought affected wheat harvest in some parts of India, prompting the country to restrict export, with some exceptions for import-dependent countries including Bangladesh.

Indonesia also imposed a ban on palm oil export.

If the same situation repeats, it would be disastrous for the world, especially the countries which rely on imports to feed their people.

Climate models predict higher average temperatures around the world and hotter extremes, rising sea levels in coastal areas and more frequent droughts in other areas, affecting staple crops.

In a brief in June, the World Bank warned food prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future and expected to push millions of additional people into acute food insecurity and threaten the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 80% of the causes behind an unpredictable harvest for cereal crops in areas like Africa's Sahel come down to climate variability. In other areas like Bangladesh and Vietnam, rising sea levels pose a different threat to food security.

Crop loss from unpredictable climate behaviours is a reality. Supply crunches caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war as well as western sanctions are beyond control. All these incidences have made foods dearer for people with limited income – the first and worst victims of surging inflation. Prolonged high food prices limit their access to staples and force them to drop protein from the daily menu. These people need to be protected from price shocks and brought under a wider safety net and fair price coverage.

Crop loss from flood or drought ruins a farmer. They need to be compensated and supported for further cultivation. They need inputs at low prices, they need fair prices for their products. It is good that the government decided not to cut the fertiliser subsidy, and irrigation pumps should be kept out of its scope if fuel price hike becomes inevitable.

Farmers are the key soldiers of the struggle for food security. They now produce three times as much food as in the '70s to feed a population which has more than doubled since then. Agriculture scientists propelled the production growth with new high-yielding varieties. Now incentivised modern farm technology and crop insurances can encourage farmers to march one step further toward food security with domestic farm output.

"Climate change vulnerability is very alarming for our crop production. To reduce our crop loss and ensure future food security, the government needs to work out an advanced plan on what to do for uninterrupted farming, how to ensure imported inputs," says Professor Saidur Rahman of Bangladesh Agricultural University. Farmers of Sunamganj should get due compensation for flood loss, the agro-economist says, calling for more support for farmers.