Prolonged heatwave hits life, economy

As Bangladesh passed another day under its worst and prolonged heatwave that disrupted life across the country, the economy has already started feeling the pinch with poultry being among the first victims.

Apparel industry is also among the sectors that are having lower worker presence and frequent power outages – both affecting their productivity.

Though temperature marked some fall in Jashore, neighbouring Chuadanga had the country's highest temperature on Sunday at 42.2 degrees Celsius while mercury soared to 42 degrees in Pabna – a level rated by the Met office as "very severe heatwave".

"Very severe heat wave is sweeping across Pabna, Jashore and Chuadanga districts and a severe heat wave is being experienced in Dhaka, parts of the Khulna divisions and Rajshahi district," the Met office said on Sunday.

Dhaka's peak temperature was lower by 2 degrees yesterday, but 38.2 degrees was still scorching and humid enough to send vendors closing their wayside shops before noon in many parts of the city. The torrid heat has made the day unbearable for rickshaw-pullers, transport workers and others who toil in the sun, cutting into their meagre daily earnings.

The traffic was thin in the city streets, but traffic police still had to be on duty under the scorching sun.

A report from a northern district says farmers leave paddy fields before noon to escape from the searing heat. They are earning less wage for the day, while boro harvesting, which has just begun in some regions, is being hampered.

As temperatures soar to record highs, the scorching heatwave is taking a toll on workers' health and productivity, industry insiders say.

Amid declining worker attendance, industries like garments, cement, and steel are struggling with reduced capacity. A concerning 10-15% drop in worker presence is reported, with labourers experiencing health issues. As extreme heat raises electricity consumption, industries are facing power outages – for five hours a day in some cases.

"Factories are seeing at least 15% of their workers absent as they report being sick from extreme heat. As heat rises, load-shedding has turned worse," said apparel industry leader Rakibul Islam Chowdhury.

In poultry farms, chickens are dying of heat stroke. Farm chicken can hardly tolerate 24-25 degrees, but temperature now ranges between 38 to 42 degrees, which cannot be cooled even by electric fans. Making the situation even worse, power outages for hours make it harder for marginal farmers to keep their chickens alive.

Chattogram's Sitakunda Upazlia Livestock Officer Dr Tahmina Arzu acknowledged that a good number of chickens are dying due to heatwave in the farms there. Similar reports are coming from Cumilla, Rajshahi and other districts.

Farmers fear if the extreme heat event prolongs, there will be shortage of eggs and poultry meat.

Though there were clouds in some parts of the country including Dhaka yesterday afternoon, the Met office did not have any strong forecast for rain in the next 24 hours. It said the prevailing heatwave conditions would not have any marked change in the next five days.

Heatwave changes life

The severe heatwave that has been sweeping the country for two weeks now prompted authorities to announce closure of schools and colleges for a week from 21 April. Universities are rescheduling classes, some going online. The Supreme Court administration on Thursday relaxed the requirement for lawyers to wear black gowns in higher courts due to the ongoing intense heatwave. The health ministry is planning heatwave protocols and precautions. Some private banks have relaxed dress codes for their staff, allowing even T-shirts in the office.

Intense heat caused a spike in various illnesses, overwhelming hospitals with patients. The capital's specialised diarrhoea hospital icddr,b is receiving 500 patients every day, 60% being children.

Doctors are urging people to avoid long outdoor stays and keep hydrated.

Extreme heat is feared to reduce the efficacy of many temperature-sensitive drugs as most medicine stores do not have proper cooling systems.

How big it may cost

The year 2023 was identified as the hottest year worldwide and Bangladesh had also experienced extreme heat even for two weeks in April last year. The situation has turned even worse in April this year.

Khan Md Golam Rabbani, weather expert at the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES), told TBS, "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance). This is the fourth time for El Niño."

The extreme heat has a cost on the economy. A research by Schroders and Cornell University last year said Bangladesh might face a $27 billion RMG export hit from extreme heat and flooding by 2030 as workers struggle under high temperatures and factories close.

However, the study said if a climate-adaptive scenario can be ensured and the apparel industry can reduce heat stress for workers, readymade garment export earnings could reach $122 billion by 2030, more than the industry's target of $100 billion set for the year.

It warned extreme weather events could erase $65 billion in apparel export earnings and 1 million new jobs from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan and Vietnam by 2030.  

Other global surveys also sound similar warning. Rising temperatures will reduce global output per person and will reduce total global output per person by 10% in 2100, said a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in 2023. Higher temperatures increase output per person in Sweden by 85.2% and decrease output per person in the United States by 42.6% and in India by 61%.

A World Bank study finds extreme urban heat damages competitiveness. Urban heat island effect in the world's largest cities, combined with global warming, will decrease real gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.4-1.7% for the median city by 2050, it warns.

The study also assessed the cost of extreme urban heat on public health and how it makes a city less liveable, suggesting steps to make streets, plazas, parks, factories, workshops, marketplaces, and homes in cities cooler.