Arctic rivalry may shape a new cold war over resources
In the new Cold War between the West and the Russia-China axis, it hardly gets colder than the Arctic, which recent events show has emerged as a new battleground of geostrategic competition.
Tucked away in February's joint statement by China and Russia — released just weeks before Russia's invasion of Ukraine — was a pledge for the duo to intensify development of the Arctic, a region rapidly opening up to economic exploitation thanks to global warming. The two also committed to strengthening cooperation on the "development and use of Arctic routes."
Russia, with more than half of the Arctic coastline, has been modernizing and expanding its Arctic military presence for several years, and views the region's oil, gas and rare-earths as future income streams. It will need China's financial muscle to help tap that potential. China, meantime, though not touching the region, calls the Arctic a "new strategic frontier," and covets it as a transport route to Europe — a "Polar Silk Road."
Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel
The West is responding. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg paid a visit to Canada's high north late last month, warning that moves by Russia and China pose a challenge to the alliance, which with NATO applicants Finland and Sweden includes seven of the eight Arctic states. Simultaneously, the US announced plans for an ambassador-at-large for the Arctic to intensify focus on the region.
Earlier this year, Denmark, which is an Arctic power thanks to its Greenland territory, issued its first assessment of Chinese and Russian espionage and influence activities in the area. The worry? The authoritarian powers could stoke Greenlandic protests against Copenhagen strengthening military assets on the giant island, and build support for Chinese investment in its natural resource development.
It remains to be seen exactly how the West will approach the China-Russia push into the Arctic. The Biden administration has opposed drilling in the Arctic, and along with many European nations has focused on clean energy over the longer haul. So it's unclear what sort of economic interests the democracies might pursue in the region.
China, by contrast, has a clear vision.
Depending on the extent of ice-cap melting, eventually the Arctic could offer a shipping link to Europe that essentially bypasses territorial waters, offering an alternative to the maritime route via the South China Sea, Strait of Malacca and Suez Canal, all of which pose potential security challenges from China's perspective.
Stoltenberg said last month that China "is investing tens of billions of dollars in energy, infrastructure and research projects in the high north."
Pursuing scientific research in the Arctic, along with similar efforts in the Antarctic, deep-sea beds and in space, is an important element in Xi Jinping's broader push into advanced technologies and moving China up the industrial value-chain, says Camilla Sorensen, an associate professor at the Royal Danish Defense College.
The harsh conditions of the Arctic put "constant pressure" on Chinese researchers and engineers, Sorensen pointed out in a podcast earlier this year.
Washington may get the opportunity to spell out its own broad set of objectives once its new Arctic ambassador is in place.
Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Bloomberg, and is published by special syndication arrangement.
