'Absence of a successful terror attack doesn’t mean the absence of terrorism'

Over the past several weeks, news of militancy linked with separatist groups in Bangladesh have come to the fore across the media.

This comes on the heels of new developments that influence the scope of  militancy across the world, for instance, the coup in Myanmar by its military junta and the Taliban takeover of the Afghan government last year.

In conversation with The Business Standard, security analyst Shafqat Munir, a senior research fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), emphasised taking actions against the perceived alliance between a militant group and a separationist outfit in the Chattogram Hill Tracts region.

Munir also discussed the importance of readiness to eliminate terror groups in the buds and elaborated how the decline of global terror groups like the Al Qaeda and IS doesn't necessarily equate to the death of militancy across the world and Bangladesh because this is an 'ideational battle.'

Joint forces [RAB and the army] have conducted operations against militants in the hill tracts. Militants are said to be taking training from separationists there. How alarming is the latest development?

After the gruesome attack on the Holy Artisan Bakery in July 2016, and particularly after the attacks that took place in 2017, we have enjoyed relative calm in terms of terrorist activities. Not too many attacks have taken place. Rather I should say if I look at the last three to four years, there has hardly been any successful attack.

There was a particular pause, especially after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. But as we have noted with alarm recently, that lull seems to have ended.

We are seeing renewed activity by a number of different groups. But we are particularly worried about the news that several youths have gone missing. And now, on top of that, we have this news that there is, at least what I would like to call, an appearance of an operational alliance between the military outfit and the separatist outfit, particularly the Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF).

The Chittagong Hill Tracts is a very significant region for Bangladesh's national security. As KNF and this new militant organisation [recently identified Islamist militant outfit Jama'atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya] are trying to work together in that space, we have to be very careful so that a new operational alliance is countered at the very beginning because we must always be very careful about the security of the Chittagong hill tracts region.

In short, I would say it is a very alarming development. We have no option but to take it seriously. I think it is very important that the joint forces are conducting a major operation. We have to flush out these groups. We have to destroy their capabilities before they become a major threat.

Security officials recently released the names of 38 people who abandoned their homes to join new militant groups. The post 'war on terror' world, after the decline of IS, sees decreasing strengths of militant groups. Why would these Bangladeshis abandon their homes for militancy now? What are they driven by?

You are right. We have seen a decline in militant activities, particularly after the large-scale capabilities of the IS were destroyed. But I think we have to remember the fundamental fact that an absence of a successful terror attack doesn't mean the absence of terrorism and violent activism.

The groups which perpetrate violent extremism and this particular context we are talking about are religiopolitical groups; they are constantly trying to do three things: recruiting new people, sharpening their message and increasing their overall capabilities. So those activities have not paused, or they have not decreased because of the destruction of the main body of Daesh or the Covid-19 pandemic.

If you recollect, even during the Covid-19 pandemic, law enforcement agencies and security officials in Bangladesh were constantly warning us about heightened activities in cyberspace.

If we look at the case of the youth who have gone missing, we are still trying to piece together what happened. But it is not difficult for us to surmise that their radicalisation may have taken place online. When we talk about online recruitment, it is an online-offline combined. The initial contact might have taken place online with some recruitment materials shared online; there is also a physical aspect to it which is meeting with the recruiter, communicating directly with the recruiter and so on. The same method may have been applied in recruiting these people as well.

These youths are driven by a number of different things – it can be personal reasons, results of a recent trauma. It could also be looking for a purpose in life, and most importantly they have been indoctrinated ideologically by a terror group or a recruiter or an organisation or a group of individuals who have motivated them that it is important for them to leave their home, leave the world that they hold very dear, to an unknown path.

In the post 'war on terror' world where both Al Qaeda and IS top leaders have been slain, the organisations weakened, and groups like the Taliban rising again as a political power in a militant stronghold subduing the other two, especially the IS, what the future of terrorism and militancy?

I think we made a mistake when we thought after the death of Osama Bin Laden that classical terrorism and militancy, as we know it post 9/11, had ended.

Yes, it is true that the top leaders of the IS or AQ have been slain. But there is new leadership. There is Saif Al Adel. If we look at the history of Al Qaeda, it was the arrival of Saif Al Adel and Ayman Al Zawahiri, the leaders of the Islamic Jihad, which actually made AQ a lethal terrorist body.

If one leader goes away, they have the capacity to create another. In this particular context, Saif Al Adel has been in Al Qaeda for a long time and has been quite instrumental in many of AQ's operations. So AQ remains a significant challenge.

Closer to home, we see that many of our groups, whether it is JMB or new-JMB, Huji, or Ansarul Islam. Many of these groups have been degraded, their capabilities weakened, and their networks have been demolished. And I want to applaud the activities of our law enforcing agencies in this regard – especially over the last five or six years.

We have also noticed that these groups have the capacity for renewal. Because if you look at the recent statements from law enforcement agencies, we are hearing the name of a new group named Jama'atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya. We are hearing about new networks and new recruitment methods.

So I go back to my earlier point that terrorist groups are constantly evolving, constantly changing their tactics, and constantly upping their games.

We have to reimagine the way we look at terrorist threats. We are about to enter into the revolutionary era of the metaverse. So we have to think about how terror groups are going to potentially make use of the metaverse to spread their message. We have to think about how disruptive technologies could potentially embolden the activities of terrorist groups.

We also have to remember that the nature of terrorism is constantly changing. For example, if you take the case of Bangladesh, for the longest time, we only had male militants. But now we have major challenges from female radicalisation as well.

But what we really need to consider right now is that cyberspace can potentially act like a forced multiplier for these terror groups.  And not just for recruitment, but for other means as well. So we really have to look at that. We also have to understand that as some militant groups are destroyed or degraded, other militant groups will rise.

At the end of the day, we always have to remember that we are in an ideational battle. Unless we are always proactive, prepared, and ready, we will not be able to win this fight.

How do you observe the development at the Myanmar border? How do you evaluate the Bangladesh government's approach to handling a crisis like this at one of its crucial borders?

We are very worried about what is happening at our border with Myanmar and about the developments taking place inside Myanmar since the military coup in February 2021. Myanmar is going through a major upheaval. And it is a society which is in deep distress right now.

When this happened, we were already handling the problem of the Rohingya refugee crisis for nearly four years. And top of that, we now have that added dimension of internal strife in Myanmar. Of late, we have seen shelling and a significant amount of violence at the Myanmar border. We are worried and alarmed by what is going on.

We must remain on guard about the possibility of any fresh influx from Myanmar – not just of the Rohingyas, but any other forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals. We must make it very clear to Myanmar and everyone else that we will not allow anyone to enter Bangladesh illegally.

The Bangladesh government has so far taken the right approach. Ultimately the solution to this crisis has to be diplomatic. We need to find new ways of engaging with Myanmar. We need to find a way for peaceful repatriation of the forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals or the Rohingyas.

At the same time, we cannot allow Myanmar's internal problems to spill over into Bangladesh. So I think we have to work with Myanmar and the regional countries and the wider international community.

And we have to make the international community understand that we have been extraordinarily generous in providing shelter and refuge to a population that has fled genocide and ethnic cleansing. But at the same time, it is not only our responsibility to deal with this problem. The international community must help us to peacefully and voluntarily repatriate these people back to their own countries.

Back to the main discussion, with the political scenario of Bangladesh heating up once again as parties take to the streets, the coming months look fraught with political rivalry. Does that scenario have any implication for the militancy in Bangladesh?

Militant groups always try to take advantage of an unstable situation. Therefore we hope that everyone will try to shun violence. And we certainly and fervently hope that any unstable or violent situation will be avoided. If such a situation occurs, militant groups will always try to take advantage.

On the question of militancy, terrorism and national security, there can be no two opinions. When it comes to national security and national interests, there can be no two opinions. When it comes to national interests and security, we must put all our differences aside and stand together as one nation.