The West in 2023: A year of shifting influences

On the international stage, nearly every nation on the globe has been economically affected by conflicts and war. The most recent development had been the troubles at the Red Sea which led to concerns of a global supply chain collapse echoing initial Covid years. 

As the year comes to a close, it is perhaps worth taking stock of global powers, events and power dynamics. One thing is for certain, this year's Israel-Gaza "conflict" led to an extremely polarised global opinion and has essentially proven disastrous for the West. 

While the hegemony has not crumbled, it has been facing an increasing number of strikes. The question is how much more can it absorb? The growing situations in Gaza and Ukraine are proving to be particularly tricky for Western powers. 

A frustrating stalemate 

In Ukraine, the year started with the hope of putting the Russian offensive to bed and recapturing the territory that had been seized. In reality, the situation played out far differently.

While Ukraine and the West planned and prepared their counteroffensive, Russia bolstered their defensive line. The result has been a frustrating stalemate. And now the West's previous bluster has dimmed down considerably. Biden's policy appears to be shifting from total victory to a negotiation, which would see Ukraine concede the territory they have already lost to Russia, though barring Ukraine's inclusion in NATO is still off the table. 

2024 will be a critical year for Ukraine. Most of its hopes unfortunately lie with the West and much of that support seems to be bogged down. In the White House, Congress is blocking a $50 bn military support package and in the EU Hungary is blocking a €50bn aid package. And with the rise of far-right powers such as Geert Wilders in the Netherlands who are on friendly terms with Putin, across Europe, it is likely Orban will receive more support soon. 

If victory is still on the cards, Ukraine does not have the luxury of waiting out the deadlocks. Zelenskyy's plan to draft 5,00,000 more soldiers has met some opposition from his commander-in-chief, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. At the same time, to meet demands for ammunition and weaponry, the US is attempting to make Ukraine's industry self-sufficient enough to deal with the load. 

But with Ukraine now shifting to the defensive again, time is of the essence.    

New extremes 

The wavering support for Ukraine has in part been caused by the situation in Gaza which is flaring up to new extremes. Israel's retaliation for Hamas' terror attack on 7 October has killed more than 21,000 people in Gaza so far. According to the United Nations, more than 90% of Gaza's 2.3 million people have been displaced. While historically the West has always been in unanimous favour with Israel, these staggering figures have even given certain Western powers pause.

Biden's support has cost him support amongst a section of his Democrat base. With re-election and Donald Trump breathing down his neck, these votes are not something he can afford to lose. More strikingly, despite the support Israel has historically received, in the recent UN vote for a humanitarian ceasefire, 153 member states out of 193 supported the motion. Among these have been Western powers such as France, Canada, Australia etc. 

The US' veto to protect Israel however blocked the resolution. Despite this, the US is finding itself increasingly isolated. Attempts made to reign in Netanyahu have also proven unsuccessful, raising concerns that the US is losing its control over the region.

The West's pointed shortcomings in condemning Israel's actions are at odds with its treatment of Russia following the Russia-Ukraine war. The double standards have exposed the West's tendency to selectively apply international laws when it suits their needs and ideas. Much of the developing world has expressed their displeasure and despite pressures have remained staunchly pro-Palestine. 

Most recently on 29 December, South Africa filed a genocide case against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) declaring that Israel was in breach of its obligations under the 1948 Genocide Convention. There has also been an increase in pro-Palestine protests on home soil in the US and across Europe. And while these protestors have met with harsh pushbacks, such as losing their jobs, their belief in the cause has not faltered. Such acts of protest against their governments reflect a change in mindset and attitudes of Western beliefs. 

Rise of Europe's far-right

The change in the 'Western ideals' that have been touted to the developing world as the gold standard has also come under strain of late. Sweeping victories by far-right parties have shocked Europe's typically progressive nations. It has been the rising trend over the past several years and this year was no exception. Italy, Sweden, Finland and The Netherlands have been among the recent countries to elect populist leaders. In France and Germany, there has also been an alarming rise in support and small-scale victories for far-right parties.

It suggests the growing disillusionment that people are facing in Europe and the US. These developments mean a rise in isolationist, nationalist and authoritarian policies, it also signals a willingness to work with Putin. Such fractures in Western agenda come during a time of multiple wars and financial turmoil and can potentially cause further harm in the future.

Beyond the West 

While the West grappled with its internal shifts, Africa underwent a major shift of its own. There have been seven attempted coups of which two have been successful in the regions of West Africa, Central Africa and the Sahel. These coups have extensive public support and notably an anti-French sentiment is strong. While French and EU influence is being cut off, these nations are increasing ties with both Russia and China, the former of which is providing several African nations with the services of the Wagner Group.

In the grand scheme of things, the coups across Africa have gone under the radar but it signifies yet another crack in the West's hold over these regions. But if these shakeups in power do go on to be successful, who will take up these gaps in power will remain to be seen. This year's BRICS Summit has been successful, the bloc announced the inclusion of five new members (Argentina pulled out on 29 December). 

The new plans are predicted to have a significant impact on the world's financial system. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's proposal for a common currency has been a hot topic. In 2023, the use of the Russian ruble and China's yuan reached 95%. Elsewhere, other nations have also begun trade in local currencies. In July, India signed an agreement with the United Arab Emirates, enabling them to settle trade in rupees.

With the rise in other currencies in trade, it begs the question, is the dollar's dominance truly threatened? Or is it still simply too powerful to be brought down? The concept of de-dollarisation is not new, however, the events of the year seem to imply that it is becoming an attractive prospect for much of the developing world. 

At the very least, it offers a choice between what has always been accepted and a new world order.