May 2023: How US visa policy emerged as game changer in confrontational politics

The disclosure of the new US visa policy by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on his Twitter handle for Bangladesh in the last week of May 2023 seems a lifetime ago. 

But it was the first step which appeared geared towards forcing a change in the course of events in the country's politics.

The revelation came at a time when politics was growing confrontational with both parties' big guns engaging in the war of words everyday as if they were preparing the army of their activists for an upcoming street battle.

With the January polls now materialising in the distance, the amping up of rhetoric wasn't unexpected.

All signs indicated a fast development of the same election cycle loop: violence answered by violence. 

The violence, however, remained in the undertones. Everyone, including leaders of the Awami League and BNP, mostly spoke about free and fair parliamentary elections, albeit in their own way. 

The opposition camp was demanding a non-partisan election time government, something they considered a must for a free and fair election. The leaders of the party in power kept rejecting this demand and claimed that the next election would be free and fair under the current government.

But tensions were simmering. And it seemed a matter of time before it would all boil over.

A video of Rajshahi district BNP convener Abu Sayeed Chand went viral, where he reportedly threatened the then prime minister Sheikh Hasina with death at a rally in Rajshahi on 19 May.

On 22 May, Mustafizur Rahman Chowdhury, a ruling Awami League lawmaker in Chattogram, came into the limelight for openly carrying a firearm while leading a rally protesting the BNP leader's alleged threat.

The next day, while the BNP's Rajshahi office was surrounded by law enforcers to "avert any untoward incident" after Sayeed Chand's alleged threat, BNP leaders and activists clashed with police in Dhaka's Science Lab area during an anti-government rally.

This was a repeat of April clashes between BNP activists and police in Khulna, Patuakhali and other districts, resulting in a slew of arrests. 

As the fear of a return of political violence grew, the police administration started preparing for the oncoming political storm. 

At the quarterly crime conference of police on 15 May in Dhaka, all police units, including the district police, were asked to form a crisis response team (CRT) ahead of the election to prevent any kind of crime, illegal activities and unwanted incidents.

Against such a backdrop, came the coercive visa policy on 24 May that pointedly applied to "any" individual who hindered free and fair elections in Bangladesh.

The wide range of people under the purview of the new policy included current and former Bangladeshi officials, members of pro-government and opposition political parties, and members of law enforcement, the judiciary, and security services.

Everyone was caught in the eye of the political storm.

Both AL, BNP in trouble?

After the visa policy came into play, both ruling AL and BNP leaders reacted favourably towards it, with each suggesting the other was in the crosshairs.

The AL leaders claimed the new visa policy would foil the BNP's plan to foil the election by creating anarchy on the streets. 

On the other hand, BNP leaders claimed the restrictions put the AL in a difficult situation and thwarted its plan to "rig another election".

Welcoming the US's new visa policy, the BNP hoped that it would play a supporting role in ensuring fair elections.

"There is no reason for their party to be worried about the US move since it is involved in vote rigging," BNP standing committee member Amir Khasru also said while talking to reporters in front of the party chairperson's Gulshan office on 25 May.

"We welcome this decision of the US as it was made considering the concern of the people of Bangladesh over the next general elections. I think this step will at least play a supporting role in holding the next polls in a fair and credible manner," he said.

BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, in a statement in the early hours of 26 May, said the new visa policy of the USA targeting Bangladesh's next election reflected the people's long-standing demand for restoration of voting rights.

He also said the main theme of the US visa policy was to ensure all the processes for arranging the upcoming parliamentary elections in Bangladesh in a free, fair, participatory and acceptable manner.

At the same time, the BNP leader said the stance taken by the US government against any move to rig votes, intimidate voters, violently suppress the people's freedom of peaceful assembly and exercise of their rights was a clear echo of the long-standing demand of the people of Bangladesh for a free and fair election.

Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader opined that after noticing the new US visa policy, the BNP leaders had become sleepless.

"Why will we obstruct the elections? We should oversee who is impeding polls. Those who do not want elections to be held and those who want to restore the caretaker government system may obstruct elections," the AL leader said at a party rally on 26 May. "No foreign friend ever told anyone about the caretaker government," he added.

The next day at another public rally organised by his party, Quader said "We will hold a free and fair election. We have set a brilliant example of that in Gazipur. Therefore, Sheikh Hasina is not worried about which foreign country imposes sanctions or stops providing visas."

On the ground, the US visa curbs had made both parties cautious of their actions, indeed.

Retaliatory Measures?

Former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, however, launched a broadside against the USA weeks before the visa policy was made public. 

It was a curious move.

According to Anthony Blinken, the Bangladesh government was notified about the new visa policy on 3 May.

"We have taken a decision. I have said that I will not buy anything from those who will give sanctions"

Former PM Sheikh Hasina on 13 May 2024

But it was kept secret until he disclosed it on his Twitter handle three weeks later. His disclosure made it clear why Hasina had suddenly launched the blistering attack on the USA.

On 13 May at a programme, Hasina announced that Bangladesh won't buy anything from those who impose sanctions. 

"There is now a tendency to give sanctions, and sanctions on those by whom we contain terrorism. We have taken a decision. I have said that I will not buy anything from those who will give sanctions," she said.

In the first week of May, when she was visiting London, Hasina in an interview with the BBC aired on 16 May said the United States may not want her, or the progress her government made, to continue.

Asked why the US imposed sanctions on one of the paramilitary organisations in Bangladesh, Hasina said: "I don't know, maybe they don't want me to continue – or, the progress we are making for Bangladesh, they may not accept it. This is how I feel.

"That paramilitary organisation was set up by the US. Actually, with their advice, it was established in 2004 and all the training and equipment – everything was provided by the US," Hasina said.

But what was missing in her statement was that the US and the Western countries were always against extra-judicial killings by the elite force.

Then came more. 

On 15 May, the then foreign minister AK Abdul Momen disclosed that the ambassadors of the United States, the United Kingdom and some other countries would no longer get additional security escort services.

The next day, then-foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen said the withdrawal of additional security to foreign diplomats did not seem to affect bilateral relations because the matter was related to protocol.

But after the disclosure of the visa policy, the initial reaction from the ruling Awami League, late on 24 May evening, was one of bravado. 

The then state minister for Foreign Affairs Shahriar Alam said the new policy would not "bother" Dhaka as the Hasina government was "committed" to holding transparent elections.

In a detailed media release the next afternoon, the foreign ministry said it viewed the US announcement in the broader context of the Hasina government's unequivocal commitment to holding free and fair elections.

"However, Bangladesh expects that such visa policy will not be applied arbitrarily in a non-objective manner," the statement said.

The pressure piles 

The latest visa restrictions undoubtedly mounted fresh pressure on Hasina at a time when the US, EU and others had already expressed their expectation to see a free and fair election in Bangladesh.

Anthony Blinken categorically said the new visa policy would help Bangladesh to hold a free and fair election.

The then US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas depicted the policy as a success for public diplomacy, showing that both Washington and Dhaka agreed on the need for free and fair elections.

The EU also focused on the election. 

Its ambassador to Bangladesh on 27 May in an interview with a private television channel said free and fair elections would be a positive signal for Bangladesh for its readiness to get GSP (Generalised Scheme of Preferences) plus facility for exports of Bangladeshi products to the European Union markets.

He mentioned that Bangladesh would have to maintain 32 conventions that included political freedom and civil and political rights to get the GSP plus facility.

Bangladesh would not be eligible for the GSP facility from 2029 in the European countries, now a major destination of the exports of Bangladeshi products.

The US and EU together account for around 66% of the total exports. So, it would be difficult for the Bangladesh economy to weather the shock if any fresh actions from the two major destinations would limit exports at a time when the country was hungry for dollars. 

There were also some analysts who thought the sudden pressure would drive Hasina towards China.

The bilateral relationship between Bangladesh and China had been strengthened in the last one decade with China extending financial support for economic growth.

Hasina herself wanted to strengthen the tie further with China as she made it clear to Chinese vice-minister for foreign affairs Sun Weidong when the latter paid a courtesy call on her at her official residence Ganabhaban on 29 May.

 "Terming China as one of the major development partners of Bangladesh, prime minister Sheikh Hasina said, the main focus of the bilateral relations between the two countries should be on further development of the two nations," reported the BSS, the official news agency of the government.

The Biden administration had sought to strengthen its relationship with Bangladesh, in part to reduce the country's reliance on Chinese economic support. But the world's largest economy kept focusing on democratic sliding and the deterioration of human rights in Bangladesh.

Foreign Policy, a leading US magazine for in-depth analysis of foreign policy, in an article on 31 May, said, "It's also clear that one of the risks of pushing the democracy agenda in Bangladesh—driving it closer to China—may be exaggerated.

 "In recent years, the United States was Bangladesh's top export destination and its biggest source of foreign direct investment. Dhaka may value Chinese infrastructure support, but its commercial partnership with Washington is also critical."

Hasina's efforts to strengthen ties with China were never welcomed by the US or India.

With the US repeatedly portraying the visa policy as an instrument for holding a free and fair election, India remained mum on the developments.

On May 27, in an online explainer, the Indian Express said the US position on the Bangladesh elections could complicate India's diplomacy in Bangladesh. New Delhi which is in no doubt that it wants Sheikh Hasina back in power in Dhaka, may prefer to keep silent on the linking of the US visa policy in Bangladesh to free and fair elections in the country," it read.

 "India's preference for a leader who has acted on its security concerns swiftly, has not won Hasina any points in her own country. While the Prime Minister is hailed in India for putting aside her own political concerns over the Modi government's Hindutva and invective targeting Bangladeshis to solidify the friendship, at home, she is seen as having given away too much — land transit rights to the Northeastern states, security assurances, a favourable coal power deal to an Adani company — when Bangladesh itself has been awaiting Teesta waters for a dozen years.

"Over the last few years, the US and India were seen as acting in tandem in Bangladesh, especially as their security objectives converged. The visa policy is a sign that this may be changing. The US is the top foreign investor in Bangladesh. A post-Afghanistan US, with new priorities, seems more open than India to political change in Dhaka," it added.

It seemed Hasina was now in an awkward position. 

Any compromise on the election-time government could be considered as a weakness in the all-powerful image she had built by staying in power over a decade and a half.

The stalemate was not going to be easy to solve. There was, however, one play up Hasina's sleeve.

"Model" Election in Gazipur

Former Election Commissioner Brig Gen (retd) M Sakhawat Hussain referred to US visa restrictions for Nigeria and Uganda following elections in the two countries. 

The former election commissioner on 26 May at a public programme said in the case of Bangladesh, this policy was announced a few months before a possible election, meaning if any party obstructs the election from before, the US would not hesitate to implement this measure against it.

He termed the new US visa policy as a "signal" to the people of Bangladesh to support a free and fair election system.

"This US visa policy announcement has left a direct impact on the Gazipur city elections, as we have witnessed it," added M Sakhawat.

Election Commissioner Md Alamgir on 28 May, however, said he was too busy organising the Gazipur city elections to study the new US visa policy and assured that the policy had no effect on the fair elections held in the city.

"Election preparations are made 45 days in advance. We do not know what the US visa policy is as we were busy with elections. Fair elections in Gazipur are not related to visa policy. If anyone breaches election laws, whoever it is, the commission will take action," he added.

In Gazipur, considered a ruling party bastion, the AL candidate faced a humiliating defeat to a largely unknown female mayoral candidate – the mother of the dismissed mayor of the city who was also expelled from the party in power.

In the post-election analysis, leading newspapers ran reports on the reasons behind the AL's defeat in Gazipur. 

On 27 May, a special report by Prothom Alo said, "The party leaders are a bit concerned and frustrated with the defeat in a poll even without BNP's participation.

"The Gazipur outcome seemed to have emboldened the morale of the BNP camp as it propagated the message that AL would lose if elections were free. 

"The party's senior leader Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury the day after the Gazipur election said, "You have seen that an election was held in Gazipur...they tried to show a fair election and we've seen the results of that effort. This is the real scenario of Bangladesh."

The same day AL General Secretary Obaidul Quader said democracy had won through the Gazipur polls as it was held in a free, fair and peaceful manner.

"Democracy has won through the Gazipur city election and it has been lauded abroad. Awami League did not interfere in the polls to make its candidate win. BNP's falsehood about polls has been proven," he said.

Just a few months before the national polls, the Election Commission also wanted to present the Gazipur polls as a model election although the BNP boycotted it and warned its grassroots leaders of expulsion if they joined the electoral race. 

Boycotting the city polls was a part of BNP's strategy of the movement for non-partisan election-time government.

Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal himself explained the importance of the city polls. 

On 10 May at a meeting with election officials and law enforcement agencies' senior officials in Gazipur, he said, "Gazipur City Corporation election is very important to us. Because there will be general elections in the future. Before this, we think that an election of such a large scale will carry a lot of national importance. That is why the Gazipur election should be a model."

The CEC did not forget to mention how Bangladesh's development partners were keeping their eyes on the election. 

"We see different countries of the world talking about our election. If possible, we would hold their mouths shut… America is talking about our election, the UK is talking, Europe is talking, Japan is talking and even the United Nations is talking. It is not possible for the Election Commission to solve hundreds of problems. You also have to take the steps that need to be done for yourself."

The ruling party's strategy was also helpful for the EC.

On 23 May citing that all upcoming city elections, including the Gazipur city one, would be free and fair, Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader said the government would not interfere in the elections.

"We will prove how to make elections fair under the leadership of prime minister Sheikh Hasina," he told a protest rally in Dhaka.

But the "Model election" in Gazipur could not be a trump card to regain opposition confidence in the election system which was gradually destroyed since the January parliamentary election in 2014. 

Moreover, the boycott of city polls by the BNP turned the battle less competitive and did not appear as a big challenge for the EC to manage.   

On 31 May, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said, "It is now a fact that elections can never be free, fair and credible under the current Awami League government."

Jatiya Party Chairman GM Quader who repeatedly said the people of the country did not have any confidence in the electoral system on 31 May said the party was taking the new visa policy of US in a positive way because they want to see a free, fair and acceptable elections in Bangladesh.

The sanctions on former Rab officials by the US on charges of extrajudicial killings in December 2021 reduced the extrajudicial killings to almost zero. No outcry locally and internationally worked earlier. But the sanctions worked.

In the last week of May BNP held a series of rallies in Dhaka city, but no untoward incident was reported. This means the visa curbs made all parties extra cautious for the time being.

Curtailing EC's power 

Suspending a parliamentary by-polls in Gaibandha, a northern district of the country by the Election Commission in October last year for electoral irregularities by the ruling party men, had come as a bolt from the blue for the AL high commands.

The government did not want the EC to hold such sweeping powers anymore with the national election approaching. 

On 18 May, the Cabinet led by the prime minister approved proposals to cut the EC's power to either postpone or cancel polling of an entire constituency for irregularities at any stage of the election. 

As per the proposed changes, the EC can postpone or cancel elections of one or more centres only on polling day.

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Keep your eyes out for the next part of the series tomorrow