October 2023: How Hasina's clampdown on BNP pushed it out of the picture

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina placed the law enforcement agencies, the civil administration, and the army of her party on a war footing to defeat any attempt by BNP-led opposition parties to prevent the parliamentary election from being held on time, most likely in the first week of January the following year, as suggested by the latest major events that had taken place in Bangladesh politics in the last week of October 2023.

All signs indicated she had arranged her political chessboard, demonstrating the flexing of muscles in her political strategy to crush the opponents to the election that was to be held under her government with all efforts regardless of the rules of the game.

Simultaneously, her party had been preparing in full swing for elections. She had frequently inaugurated development projects, whether the completion of works or the beginning of new projects, showcasing her government's development activities and claiming that all had been possible because of her party's rule for the last 15 consecutive years. At public rallies organised by her party, she had sought votes for her Awami League in the next elections, asserting that it was for the continuation of the flow of development.

She had carried out her party's election campaign in advance using all state facilities, while the BNP had been facing a crackdown by the police and struggling to continue street agitation calling for her resignation for the next election to be held under a non-partisan government. This had not been a level playing field in the run-up to the election.

Alongside the massive deployment of police, Rab, and the paramilitary force BGB on the streets to foil the BNP's anti-government programs such as hartal and blockade beginning at the end of October, a large number of her party men had taken to the streets with sticks, iron rods, et., to prevent BNP men from taking control of the streets.

The law enforcement agencies had clamped down on the opposition BNP after their 28 October rally in Nayapaltan was foiled following deadly clashes between the police and opposition members. One policeman and one leader of the BNP youth front had been killed, and the residences of the chief justice and the police hospital had been attacked during the clash. The BNP had taken no time to announce a countrywide hartal the next day to protest the police attack on the rally. After the hartal, the party had also enforced a three-day blockade starting 31 October and announced plans to continue tougher agitation programmes in the coming days.

There had been a clear shift in the party's stated strategy for its one-point movement, launched in July, to unseat the Awami League government and force it to hold the national election under a non-party administration. The peaceful agitation had suddenly turned violent, and the fear of escalating violence in the coming weeks had been running high.

As the government had taken a hard line against the BNP, the law enforcement agencies had been going hard on the opposition leaders and activists. During the hartal and blockades, they had tried hard to foil picketing by the opposition to enforce hartal and blockades, resulting in clashes in many places.

Centering around the 28 October rally and clashes on the day, approximately 2,500 BNP leaders and activists, including its senior leaders Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir and Mirza Abbas, had been arrested in Dhaka. More than five dozen cases had been filed in connection with the violence on 28 October, accusing more than 37,000 BNP leaders and activists. More than 7,000 BNP members had been arrested nationwide, according to the party.

Interestingly, all police actions had targeted the BNP and other opposition party members accusing them of violence, but no action had been taken against ruling party members who had engaged in clashes with the BNP activists in and outside Dhaka.

Such targeted police actions had been spoiling the atmosphere for a free, fair, and peaceful election, as there had been no level playing field for all. The international community and local political analysts had been decrying the targeted crackdown on the opposition and urging all parties to show restraint, shun the path of violence, and create an atmosphere conducive to a free and fair election.

Hasina and her party policymakers had been aware of the diplomatic push that might be intensified in the coming weeks. Yet, she had opted for a non-compromising strategy, as no other option had favoured her at that time. Her term as PM was expiring on 29 January, the day the current parliament would expire its five-year term. By the first week of January, she would have to manage an election in favour of her party to stay in power for another term. AL leaders knew that failure to come to power through the next election would place the party under existential threat, as numerous wrongdoings and alleged grafts by many government ministers and party members would be investigated. They might face the wrath of the opposition, who had been subjected to either physical torture or legal harassment in the last 15 years of AL rule since 2009.

On the other hand, the BNP, out of power for the last 17 years, had been facing an existential crisis too. If the party failed to force the government to accept its demand and failed to resist the next election, it would suffer more setbacks in politics. The BNP had therefore taken a hard line and planned to enforce more street agitation like hartal and blockade to make the situation out of control of the government.

The reality, however, did not favour the BNP. The arrest of BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul, the face of the BNP's agitation, and other leaders had demoralised the party's grassroots-level leaders and activists. It had been difficult for the arrested leaders to come out of prison on bail as the lower courts had been denying them bail. The lower courts seemed to have become part of Hasina's strategy to crush the opposition for a controlled parliamentary election. The lower judiciary that had not granted bail to the senior opposition leaders would play a crucial role in maintaining order during the election. Any biased role by the magistrates engaged in fighting electoral anomalies would have undermined the neutrality of the election administration.

With the political situation turning turbulent due to escalating violence, the Election Commission bothered little as it was determined to hold the election on time as per the current constitutional provision and was taking all preparations in this regard. Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal made it clear that he had no other option but to hold the election in January regardless of the situation. His colleagues in the EC had been saying they did not care if any party chose not to join the polls.

On 30 October, top law enforcement officials informed the Election Commission that there were no significant obstacles to arranging the upcoming national election. While attending a meeting with the EC, they also stated that they would remain vigilant in ensuring that the law-and-order situation did not deteriorate during BNP's political programs. The EC met with the principal staff officer of the Armed Forces Division, chiefs of police, RAB, BGB, Ansar, and others.

"Intelligence reports and chiefs of law enforcement in the meeting said there are no significant obstacles to arranging the national election," EC Secretary Jahangir Alam told reporters after the meeting. He added that the schedule for the polls would be announced in the first half of November.

In summary, Bangladesh was heading for another controversial election like the previous two in 2014 and 2018. But this time, Sheikh Hasina might have played the game in a different way. Political analysts predicted that if BNP boycotted the polls, the ruling AL would face zero risk of losing state power. In such a situation, Hasina might have opted for making the polls "free and fair" as much as possible, given that the international community was pushing for a free and fair election. Participation of the Jatiya Party and some other minor parties in the polls might have been portrayed as a "participatory" election. Public perception was that, in that case, the Jatiya Party and other small parties might have been given 70 to 80 seats to constitute the opposition bench in the new parliament. She would have found the Jatiya Party always ready to play the role of the main opposition, as it had been doing since 2014.

There was speculation that the government had been trying hard to force some BNP leaders to contest the election under Trinamool BNP, a newly launched political party formed by former BNP leaders. The party was already known as the "king's party."

Hasina, however, repeatedly claimed that all elections held under her government in the past decade were free and fair. But the fact was that most of the elections had been marred by alleged vote rigging and various irregularities, which gave birth to a new model of election in Bangladesh. If Hasina planned to replicate the 2014 or 2018 election in 2024, she might have faced enormous challenges in defending such a controversial election.

Last week of October: the game changer?

Major events on 31 October, the day before the beginning of the 90-day constitutional timeframe on 1 November for holding the next parliamentary election, exposed the dangerous vulnerability of Bangladesh's democracy and paved the way for the escalation of political violence in the coming days.

The latest developments also suggested Bangladesh was heading fast for another controversial parliamentary election as Sheikh Hasina made it clear once again on 31 October that no street protests and no extent of diplomatic push could stop her government from holding the polls on time and as per the current constitutional provisions, which favoured her to stay in power during the elections.

On the same day, Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal categorically said the election would be held on time regardless of the situation. He made the statement after a meeting with US Ambassador in Dhaka Peter Haas who urged all parties to hold unconditional talks to resolve the political crisis that had turned violent since 28 October.

The Election Commission, on the evening of 31 October, also disclosed its plan for holding talks with all registered political parties to brief them about the election preparation. In an instant reaction, the BNP rejected the EC talks. The CEC, who a week earlier had said the desired atmosphere for holding the polls had yet to be created, made it clear on 31 October that he had no other option but to hold the polls according to the constitutional timeframe.

The EC was scheduled to meet the president in the second week of November and might announce the election schedule any day after meeting with the president.

The BNP and other opposition parties planned to intensify street agitation to force the government to accept the demand for the installation of a non-partisan caretaker government before the announcement of the election schedule.

On the other hand, the Hasina administration and her party wanted to keep the situation under control and facilitate the EC's announcement of the election schedule. The announcement of the schedule would begin the process for holding the polls in the next one and a half months. The ruling AL leaders believed the announcement of the election schedule would change the political situation as many parties, except the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, would join the election race. The country would be in an election mood. The administration could take actions against those who created obstacles to the election. Before the polling day, the army would also be deployed to guard the election, as the armed forces had helped the government in 2014 and 2018 to hold the controversial elections.

For the time being, the government, the EC, the AL, and BNP all focused on the announcement of the election schedule.

According to Article 123 (3) of the constitution, the election was to be held within 90 days of the dissolution of the current parliament due to the expiration of its term. The five-year term of the current parliament, which began its journey on 30 January 2019, was set to expire on 29 January next year. And the 90-day timeframe began on 1 November.

Politics was therefore set to take a new turn after the announcement of the schedule, as the opposition parties might announce street agitation to resist the election, as they had tried to do in 2014, triggering widespread violence that left around 400 people dead and more than half of the parliamentary seats filled uncontested.

Just three days before the 90-day timeframe began, the peaceful political situation suddenly turned violent on 28 October after police attacked a BNP rally in Nayapaltan and foiled it. Deadly clashes between the police and BNP men and the AL erupted in some other parts of Dhaka on the same day, leaving one police officer and a BNP man dead.

The party that had been continuing peaceful agitation on the streets to meet their demands for more than a year announced a hartal the next day and a blockade from 31 October. Deadly clashes between the police and the BNP and AL were reported during the hartal and the first day of the blockade, leaving 5 more people dead.

The first day of the blockade coincided with Hasina's press conference at her official residence, Ganabhaban, organised to brief the media about her latest Belgium visit. 

In the press conference, she issued a strong warning and said, "The BNP is a terrorist party and as a terrorist party, they need to be taught a good lesson." 

She mentioned that those who burned buses would be identified, arrested, and punished. 

"I think the hands they used to set a bus on fire should have been burned immediately. If so, they would learn their lesson; otherwise, not," she said in response to a question from a journalist.

Earlier in the morning, media outlets in Dhaka reported on a US State Department briefing saying the US would take action if necessary to support democracy in Bangladesh. 

"I will say that we made clear we will take actions if necessary to support democracy in Bangladesh, and I will never preview those from the podium," US Department of State Spokesperson Matthew Miller said while responding to a question during a regular press briefing. The US announced a visa policy at the end of May and imposed the first batch of restrictions in September on individuals within the Bangladesh law enforcement, the ruling party, and the political opposition—individuals "responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh."

These individuals and their immediate family members might have been barred from entering the US, according to a press statement issued by the US Department of State on 22 September. The visa policy largely contributed to keeping the political situation peaceful until the 28 October rally, which was foiled after clashes between police and BNP members.

Hot on the heels of the eruption of political violence, US Ambassador in Dhaka Peter Haas met with the chief election commissioner (CEC) on the morning of 31 October to discuss the overall political situation. After the meeting, Haas urged all parties to hold unconditional talks to resolve the political crisis. Following his meeting with Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal, the US ambassador expressed hope that all sides would engage in a "dialogue" without preconditions to de-escalate tensions and find a path forward to a free, fair, and peaceful election.

In the afternoon, Hasina used harsh words to respond to the US ambassador's call. She said she would hold talks with the opposition only if US President Joe Biden sat for a dialogue with former US President Donald Trump. 

"Was [US President] Biden holding dialogues with Trump? If Biden sat with Trump for dialogue, then I would hold the dialogue [with the opposition]," she told a press conference regarding the US Ambassador's call to hold dialogue with the opposition. 

"No dialogue with the killers. This is Bangladesh. The people of the country also do not want any dialogue with killers," she told the press conference. 

The election would be held and it would be held on time, she added. 

"They won't be able to stop the election in such a way... They couldn't stop the elections in 2014 and 2018. This time too, they wouldn't be able to do so. The election would be held on time," she said.

Bangladesh had a long history of permitting security forces to commit excesses to control crime, leading to the collapse of the rule of law and blood on the streets. In 2015, after the BNP-led opposition enforced countrywide indefinite blockades, Sheikh Hasina was quoted in the media as having authorised the security forces "to take any action whenever and wherever deemed necessary" to stop the arson attacks. Although she stopped short of issuing threatened directives to shoot suspected arsonists on sight, the message coming from her office only encouraged further security services excesses.

Anti-US rhetoric by the prime minister and ministers continued. Hasina was annoyed with the diplomatic push for making the next parliamentary election free and fair. In her words, she should not be lectured about the arrangement of free and fair elections, as she claimed it had been her party, Bangladesh Awami League, which established the voting rights of the people in the country. 

"No need to teach me about free and neutral elections. Because we've established the voting rights of the people of Bangladesh through struggles and movements under the leadership of Awami League," she said on 7 October. 

She mentioned that since such elections had been held, the people had voted for her party time and again. "This economic development happened now as we've been in power in a row (for three consecutive terms)."

Hasina, also the AL president, wondered why so many questions came up now regarding the election. 

"Has it become a matter of headache for all that a country progressed so rapidly? I am also doubtful if it is an attempt to destroy this progress now?" she said.

Apparently expressing displeasure over Washington's idea of political dialogue, Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen on 31 October said certain foreign entities in Bangladesh should apply for political registration and turn into political groups to talk about Bangladesh's internal affairs and do politics. 

"I often think some foreign organisations should turn into political entities. I think they should apply for registration so they could also form political bodies and take political positions in our internal affairs. Let them form a party and see how many votes they get," he told reporters at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs when his attention was drawn to US Ambassador Peter Haas' remarks about political dialogue.

Ambassador Haas had hoped that all sides going forward would engage in a "dialogue" without preconditions to de-escalate tensions and find a path forward to free, fair, and peaceful elections.

Momen had said his government was not concerned about any further US sanctions against or restrictions on Bangladesh. 

"Forget it. We are not worried about sanctions. We don't care whether restrictions are imposed or not." The minister said this in reply to a query about a media report predicting sanctions against the police on Tuesday. Talking to reporters at his ministry in the city, Momen also criticised the way foreign diplomats interfered in the internal affairs of the country.

BNP has become a virtual party!

The crackdown on the opposition has apparently turned the BNP into a virtual party. 

Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir was arrested on the morning of 29 October, a day after deadly clashes. Police had raided the houses of several other senior leaders of the party, who had gone into hiding to avoid arrest. The police declared the BNP central office as "crime scenes" and cordoned it off with yellow tape that read "crime scene do not cross" to collect evidence for the investigation into the violence.

An armed police patrol team had been seen around the office premises, with additional teams deployed in two nearby areas – Fakirapool crossing and Nightingale crossing – since 29 October.

BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi had held a press conference via Zoom from an undisclosed location on the evening of 29 October, after the end of the dawn-to-dusk countrywide hartal, and announced a three-day blockade starting from 31 October.

On the night of 31 October, police arrested BNP standing committee member Mirza Abbas in a case filed against him in 2007 on the charge of concealing information in his wealth statement. BNP leader Syed Moazzem Hossain Alal had also been arrested that same night.

While BNP members were either on the run or facing police crackdown, ruling AL members had been dominating the Dhaka city streets with sticks, iron rods, and other weapons. All signs indicated that more BNP leaders and activists would be detained in the coming weeks if the party tried to intensify the street agitation.

In such a situation, how long could the BNP continue the street agitation? This became a burning question.

Was the BNP solely responsible for violence?

As the UN, US, and foreign missions in Dhaka expressed concern over the eruption of violence and the killing of police and political activists, the government had put the entire blame on the opposition for the violence that began on 28 October and had justified the crackdown on the opposition by accusing them of engaging in violence. The foreign ministry had called all ambassadors and high commissioners in Dhaka on 30 October.

Then foreign minister AK Abdul Momen had told diplomats that ahead of the 2014 general elections, BNP and its allies vandalised or set fire to several thousand vehicles using petrol bombs, "very often burning alive the passengers stranded inside."

He said over 400 people, including 20 law enforcement officers, were killed in their petrol bomb and hand grenade attacks while many of the wounded were "still living with horrific scars and trauma."

"We dispatched in the evening of 28 October summarising the rampant violence conducted by the BNP activists," he said.

Momen expected the foreign diplomats to have watched the footage on TV and online showing how the on-duty police officer was beaten to death or how the precious life of a public transport worker was taken by torching a public bus.

Highlighting BNP-Jamaat's "brutality and destruction" on 28-29 October, the government conveyed to the international community its "strong and unwavering" stance to stick to the democratic process as mandated by the constitution, and to hold "free, fair, and credible" elections on time.

"I would like to, however, emphasise that every human life matters – our BNP friends understood that or not! We will keep showing utmost patience and restraint," Momen said while briefing the diplomats at the state guesthouse Jamuna in Dhaka that afternoon.

Sheikh Hasina's adviser Salman F Rahman, Law Minister Anisul Huq, State Minister for Foreign Affairs Md Shahriar Alam, and Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen, among others, had been present at the briefing.

"It did not matter who came or did not come. A participatory election meant participation of people. If there was a participation of people, then that was a participatory election," Momen said.

The law minister said the diplomats were given a chance to ask questions but they did not have any questions.

"We understand that the explanation we provided was clear. It is their responsibility to say whether they are convinced or not," he said.

Shahriar Alam said if anyone wanted to take part in the election, they had to follow the constitutional path.

He said they gave a compilation of video footage and still photographs and also a written version of what happened on October 28 and 29 – including killings, attacks on police and journalists, and on the Chief Justice's residence, among others.

Hours before the briefing, diplomatic missions in Dhaka called on all stakeholders to exercise "restraint, eschew violence, and work together" to create the conditions for free, fair, participatory, and peaceful elections.

"The governments of Australia, Canada, Japan, Republic of Korea, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States were deeply concerned by the political violence during political gatherings in Dhaka on 28 October," said a joint statement signed by the embassies and high commissions of the countries.

On the morning of 30 October 30, BNP sent a letter to foreign embassies in Dhaka, blaming the government and police force for the violence that had occurred during political rallies on 28 October.

According to media reports, the letter containing evidence of attacks on BNP's peaceful gatherings had been sent to various embassies. The letter also outlined the circumstances that had necessitated BNP to adopt tougher measures.

On 31 October, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said that, in addition to protesters, suspected ruling party supporters were also involved in the violence that had gripped Dhaka city on October 28 during rallies by major political parties.

"On 28 October, opposition protesters allegedly attacked the residences of the chief justice and other judges, and approximately 30 journalists had been assaulted by protesters and masked individuals riding on motorcycles, who were thought to have been ruling party supporters," the human rights organisation said in a press statement published on the night of 31 October.

Jamaat-e-Islami: The lone beneficiary?

On 25 October, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan stated that Jamaat-e-Islami was not a registered political party at that time and, therefore, the party would not be granted permission to hold any rally. 

Jamaat had applied to the Dhaka Metropolitan Police to hold their rally at Shapla Chattar in Motijheel on 28 October.

Top officials of the Dhaka Metropolitan Police also echoed the views of the home minister. Joint Commissioner of DMP Biplob Kumar Sarker said, "Police will not allow Jamaat to hold the rally as the party is an anti-liberation force. Besides, the registration of the political party had already been cancelled."

However, on 28 October, the situation was different. Police initially tried to prevent Jamaat from holding a rally in the Motijheel area. Despite this, a large number of Jamaat supporters broke through police barricades and entered the Motijheel area, and the police took no action.

While BNP activists clashed with police and ruling AL supporters in Nayapaltan, Kakrail, and adjacent areas, the situation in the Jamaat rally area remained peaceful and calm. After clashes erupted between the police and BNP activists, the police intervened and thwarted the BNP rally in Nayapaltan.

Jamaat-e-Islami held the rally peacefully, raising questions about whether the government had reached any understanding with Jamaat to keep it separate from the BNP. 

But the reality on that day was different. The police did not want to open a second front in the battle by taking action against Jamaat supporters while they were already engaged in clashes with BNP supporters in various locations.

A former ally of the BNP-led alliance, the Islamist party Jamaat, along with other opposition parties, was enforcing the same agitation programs announced by the BNP.

What next?

A dangerous game was played between the two major political parties. The primary concern was that the heated disagreements and hatred between the two camps would push both parties onto an aggressive, reckless path in pursuit of their agendas, especially as Bangladesh approached the election.

A free and fair election was crucial for Bangladesh to improve its governance and economy through implementing many reforms. Political turmoil heavily cost the economy. Amid allegations of rampant graft and poor governance, the country's economy had grown well due to political stability in the previous eight years. The last time Bangladesh experienced violent political unrest was in 2015 when the BNP-led opposition enforced an indefinite blockade of roads, waterways, and railways starting 6 January, as the government had denied them permission to hold protest rallies the previous day to mark the first anniversary of the one-sided 2014 election.

Bangladesh suffered a financial loss of around $2.2 billion (approximately Tk17,150 crore) in the last three months due to political turmoil, according to a World Bank report published in April 2015.

At that time, the country's economy was under tremendous stress. All macroeconomic indicators were negative. High inflationary pressure was squeezing the standard of living for the majority of people in Bangladesh. They feared political unrest would worsen the situation.

What would happen if a one-sided election were held again? This remained the all-important question. After the 2014 and 2018 controversial elections, the US, EU, and some other countries had only expressed concerns. None of them had announced any punitive actions against Bangladesh.

This time, the situation was different. The US had announced a visa policy in May and started imposing visa restrictions on individuals responsible for undermining the democratic election. The State Department announced in October that it would take necessary actions to support Bangladeshi democracy. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her cabinet colleagues had repeatedly stated that they were not worried about any possible sanctions from the US. In a counterattack, Sheikh Hasina and some of her cabinet colleagues publicly criticised the US for its diplomatic push for a free and fair election.

Businessmen who, a few months prior, announced their support for Sheikh Hasina as the next PM were now fearful of trade sanctions from the US and the EU—the two major destinations for Bangladeshi exports.

Still, public perception persisted that the election might not be held under the Hasina-led government and that something would happen in the coming weeks to get the derailed election process back on track.

However, ruling party policy makers believed that the anti-government agitation would subside soon in the face of the ongoing crackdown by law enforcers, and the election would be held in January. If so, another controversial election was almost certain.