Champions Trophy qualification scenarios: What England, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Netherlands need to do

The International Cricket Council (ICC) earlier last month threw curveball after revealing that the league-stage positions in the ongoing World Cup 2023 will decide on the eight teams that will participate in the Champions Trophy 2025.

This implies two of the 10 teams in the tournament going on in India will fail to make it through for the event in Pakistan two years later. Six teams have already confirmed their spot, the three semifinalists in India, South Africa, and Australia, hosts Pakistan, and sixth-placed Afghanistan. The competition for the remaining two positions will hence be decided among England, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Netherlands.

World Cup 2023 still has four league games remaining over the next three days and while Sri Lanka will be leaving their chances to fate, the remainder of the aforementioned teams will have a chance to guarantee their ticket for Champions Trophy 2025.

England

With their emphatic win against Netherlands, the two-time Champions Trophy runner-up have risen from the bottom of the table to the seventh spot. But they are yet to confirm their qualification. And just a win against Pakistan in their final league game on Saturday at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata will not be enough for England. They need both Bangladesh and Netherlands to lose their final matches as well. And even if they do manage to win, the margin of victory should not be enough to get them past England on the points table based on net run rate (NRR).

However, if they lose, England would want to stay above Sri Lanka in terms of NRR and expect both or either of Bangladesh and Netherlands to lose their matches.

Bangladesh

The Asian side face a tougher challenge than England to stay in contention for a place in Champions Trophy 2025, although the scenario remain a tad bit similar. With similar points from as many matches as England, Bangladesh stand below them on the points table owing to a far worse NRR (-1.142 to England's -0.885). And above all, they face five-time champions Australia, who are on a six-match winning streak and whom they have never beaten in ODIs since 2005, in their final match in Pune.

Bangladesh not only have to pull off the impossible, the win should have a significant impact on their NRR to keep them alive in the top eight. However, if they lose, Bangladesh need to ensure the margin of loss isn't much to send them below Sri Lanka in the points table while expecting Netherlands to lose their last match.

Sri Lanka 

Done with their league games in World Cup 2023, the former Champions Trophy winners have fate to decide upon their qualification as they standing below England and Bangladesh on the points table. Sri Lanka need two of England, Bangladesh, and the Netherlands to lose by huge margins to qualify for the event in terms of NRR.

Netherlands

The 160-run loss against England in their previous match left them wounded as they stand right at the bottom of the points table with a dismal NRR. And in a bid to make the Champions Trophy for the very first time, they need to complete a daunting task that no other team has managed to complete in this World Cup - beat semifinal-bound India. However, just a win will not be enough. The margin of victory ought to be enormous while expecting one of Bangladesh and England to suffer a brutal loss in a bid to make it through via NRR.