GDP grows 5.82% in FY24, up from last year's 5.78%: BBS 

Infographics: TBS

Bangladesh's economy is projected to grow at 5.82% in the current fiscal year ending on 30 June, according to a provisional estimate by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.  

This growth in gross domestic product is a slight increase from last fiscal year's 5.78% and aligns closely with the International Monetary Fund's forecast of 5.7% and the World Bank's 5.6%. 

Meanwhile, per capita income has risen slightly to $2,784 in the current fiscal year from $2,749 in the previous year, as per the estimate based on data from the first seven months of the current fiscal year (FY24).

In the current budget, the growth rate was initially projected at 7.5%, which was later revised downward to 7%. Bangladesh's GDP at current prices stands at $459 billion, up from $452 billion in the previous fiscal, with the GDP in FY22 reaching $460 billion.

Monzur Hossain, research director of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, said it was already assumed that the growth rate would fall below 6%. 

However, the current estimate by the BBS is provisional and is subject to change, he added.

He said the industry sector's growth may be impacted by reduced imports, affecting the availability of raw materials and machinery. Besides, rising fuel prices may further hinder industrial production.

The agriculture sector may remain stable, with slight growth in services, but industrial growth is crucial, Monzur said. "Both overall and private investments are down, causing macroeconomic instability influenced by factors like balance of payments and currency exchange rates." 

At this moment, maintaining macroeconomic stability is crucial, added the economist. He said the government should come out of some import restrictions. 

He also suggested that there should be balance between monetary and revenue policies. Exchange rate and interest rates also should be market-based. 

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development, said the country has not met the targets outlined in the 8th Five Year Plan as investments have not risen as expected compared to other countries. 

"Growth in industries and agriculture has slowed down. Even after the Covid pandemic, our growth remained low, and we couldn't recover. Besides, the Ukraine war, rise in dollar value, and high inflation further destabilised our economy," said the economist.

To achieve the desired growth, Bangladesh must concentrate on all sectors and align government policies accordingly, he added.

Infographics: TBS

Sector-wise movement 

Sector-wise growth shows a decrease in agriculture and industry, but a slight rise in the services sector. The investment-to-GDP ratio remains steady at 30.98%, according to BBS data.

In the agriculture sector, there is an estimated growth of 3.21% this fiscal year, down from 3.37% previous fiscal, marking a 0.16% decrease. 

The industry sector is estimated to grow by 6.66% this fiscal year, down from 8.37%, with a 1.71% decrease. 

The services sector is expected to grow by 5.80% this fiscal year, up from 5.37% previously, reflecting a 0.43% increase.

In the current fiscal year, the investment-to-GDP ratio, domestic savings, and national savings stand at 30.98%, 27.61%, and 31.86%, respectively. 

Compared to the previous fiscal year, investment increased by 0.03%, domestic savings by 1.85%, and national savings by 1.91%.

Private investment growth in the private sector was estimated at 23.5% this, compared to 24.18% previous year. 

Furthermore, the BBS estimated the consumption rate at 74.24% in FY24. It was 72.39% in the previous fiscal.