Political solution needed to address quota reform movement: Experts

Experts have said that the economic challenges arising from the quota reform movement are not the primary concern; rather, the underlying economic and political issues fueling the unrest must be addressed through political means. 

The discussion took place during a webinar titled "Carnage in Bangladesh: What Happened? What's Next?" organised by the Forum for Bangladesh Studies yesterday (3 August).

"The quota movement might appear to be an economic issue, but it is deeply intertwined with political and social problems. Therefore, this issue requires a political solution," said Dr Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). 

Dr Khatun explained that there are vast opportunities for youth in the labour market, but the management of these markets needs to be revised, and policies are often designed to benefit only a select few. 

"We hear a lot about high growth and social development, but not everyone benefits equally. Political leadership and bureaucracy often create an elite group that influences policy-making, leading to the exclusion of many students who are now expressing their frustrations," she added.

She further noted that certain policies are designed to favor specific sectors like power, garment, and banking, while essential areas like education, healthcare, social security, and skill development receive insufficient funding.

Hossain Zillur Rahman, a former adviser to the caretaker government, suggested that the current situation is not necessarily a cause for economic alarm, but it does demand a critical examination of the movement's agenda and grievances. 

"The focus should be on understanding the underlying causes of the unrest, which include issues like corruption and question leaks, not just the quota system," he said.

Rahman pointed out that students are beginning to understand that without reforms, their job prospects remain uncertain. 

"This is the same generation that took to the streets in 2018 for road safety reforms. Their current movement is driven by economic and political deprivation. We must take their concerns and emotions seriously, beyond just the economic challenges," he said.

Jyoti Rahman, director of international affairs at the Sydney Policy Analysis Centre, warned of the potential economic fallout if the current situation persists. 

"Our economy is at risk of rapid decline. Production is being disrupted. During the 1990s mass uprising, our economy was smaller, but now the impact could be much greater," he cautioned.

He also noted that the movement's momentum could lead to a significant drop in remittances, which could create a foreign exchange crisis. 

"This could devalue the taka and lead to inflation. Prolonged political instability will affect reserves and remittances, impacting exchange rates and inflation," Rahman added.