Elections bring hope to India-controlled Kashmir

At a campaign rally in southern Kashmir, 45-year-old Shameema Jan raises her voice and joins dozens of other women in singing traditional songs in support of their preferred candidate ahead of the Jammu and Kashmir regional election due to start on Wednesday.

The hopes held by these women are simple. They want a representative, preferably a woman, who can address their everyday concerns, such as water scarcity in the village, the imprisonment of local boys in jails outside Kashmir, and the growing issue of youth unemployment in the Muslim-majority region controlled by India.

To them, this candidate is Iltija Mufti, the daughter of former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, who served as the head of Jammu and Kashmir government until 2018.

"She is young and energetic," Jan told DW of Iltija Mufti. "If we vote for her, she will listen to us. We have so many young people in jails outside Kashmir, and we want them to be released," Jan added, while Mufti addressed the rally from atop her SUV.

"This election might change our situation," Jan said, with women around her nodding in agreement.

Separatists challenge established parties at ballot box

Jammu and Kashmir is set to hold its first regional assembly elections in a decade. The last such ballot was held in 2014 when Indian PM Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the regional Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) formed a coalition government. 

However, the coalition collapsed in 2018 when the BJP withdrew its support and New Delhi took direct control of the region troubled by separatist violence.

Now, the upcoming ballot offers a chance for the people of Kashmir to elect a new government after years of political uncertainty. It is also the first regional election since the region was stripped of its special status and divided into two union territories Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

Regional parties like the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) and the PDP, along with bigger national parties such as the BJP and the Indian National Congress (INC), are all contesting these elections.

But there are also many separatist running as independents, marking a significant shift from their previous stance of boycotting the polls altogether.

Banned Islamist faction allies with 'Engineer Rasheed'

Thenational election held this spring has already hinted at a new generation of leaders, including Abdul Rasheed Sheikh, better known to his supporters as "Engineer Rasheed."

The former civil engineer ran for the national parliament from jail after being detained on suspicion of funding terror. He still managed to score a resounding victory. His Awami Itehad Party (AIP) is expected to pose a strong challenge to traditional political parties in the upcoming ballot.

"We are participating in the poll as we don't want to live in perpetual fear," Manzoor Ahmad, a participant of a pro-AIP rally in the Kashmiri town of Tral told DW. "We came out in large numbers to listen to Rasheed as his speeches resonate with our ideas and thoughts," he added.

Sheikh was granted interim bail in September, allowing him to participate in the campaign.

Another one of his supporters, Atiqa Jan, told DW her son is in jail and she wanted him out.

"My son has been in jail for the past year and I wanted to tell this to Rasheed as he can understand my pain," she said.

Sheikh's AIP has also formed a pre-election alliance with the banned Jamat-e-Islami faction, whose candidates officially run as independents in the upcoming election.

BJP trying hard to make political inroads in Kashmir 

Narendra Modi's BJP has been struggling to gain support in the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley. However, it has a significant voter base in the Hindu-majority Jammu region. Moreover, Jammu is a key constituency for the BJP where it can capitalize on its nationalist rhetoric, security concerns, and pledges of development projects.

On September 14, Prime Minister Modi told a political rally in the Doda district of Jammu that BJP has made the entire region prosperous.

"We and you together will make Kashmir a secure and prosperous part of the country," he said.

He also pledged that terrorism was "breathing its last in Jammu and Kashmir" — despite the separatist violence.

However, local political leaders dismiss the BJP's claims of change as "fake."

"It is a matter of shame for the BJP that has been saying the situation has improved, but they could not hold elections in Jammu and Kashmir in the last 10 years. People are annoyed, they are suffocating," said former Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti.

Chance to protest New Delhi reforms?

The newly elected government will have restricted powers due to Jammu and Kashmir's current status as a Union Territory after the political changes in 2019. Many important areas, such as law and order and land issues, remain under the control of New Delhi where the local government cannot make any changes.

"The elections are significant and non-significant at the same time," Professor Noor Muhammad Baba, a regional political analyst, told DW. "They are significant because they are being held after a long time and people will get to elect their representatives, and also because this will serve as a message of how people are angry and rue the changes."

But he warns those same changes mean that the government will have "little power."

"Now people will decide whether they stand for changes or against them," he said.