Monsoon over, what course dengue is now taking?

Despite the end of the monsoon season and decreasing rainfall, experts warn of an impending surge in dengue cases, with the number of patients expected to peak in late October.

They have urged people to take precautions against dengue by protecting themselves from mosquito bites.

Experts say although rainfall has decreased, city authorities have been unable to effectively eliminate mosquitoes and their larvae. Aedes mosquito larvae are now thriving in stagnant rainwater across the city.

According to data from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), dengue cases and deaths have been rising in recent days. Within the first 16 days of this month, 15,012 dengue patients were hospitalised, and 63 fatalities were reported.

In September, 18,097 dengue patients were hospitalised, with 80 recorded deaths.

From 1 January to 16 October, a total of 45,950 dengue patients have been admitted to various hospitals across the country, resulting in 226 deaths.

Rainfall and temperature are considered two key factors behind the rise in dengue cases. So, why are dengue cases still increasing despite the end of the rainy season and a slight drop in temperatures?

In response to the question, entomologist and Jahangirnagar University zoology professor Kabirul Bashar told TBS, "Temperatures are above 30 degrees in almost all parts of the country, creating an environment conducive to Aedes mosquito breeding. These mosquitoes have a lifespan of 20 to 25 days, so we can expect an increase in dengue cases in the coming days."

He said, "Our city corporations and local governments, including municipalities, are currently inactive, with little to no efforts being made to control mosquito populations. As a result, fully developed mosquitoes are biting people in various locations and spreading dengue."

He warned of a prolonged dengue season, saying, "Dengue will still be present in November and December. The outbreak has not peaked yet, and it is likely to peak next week before gradually decreasing. However, this year's situation is more severe than last year."

He advised people to take personal responsibility for their safety rather than solely relying on the city corporation.

Lt Col Rubayet Ismat Ovik, deputy chief health officer of the Dhaka North City, told TBS, "It is not possible for the city corporation to control dengue on its own. Aedes larvae have been found in the underground areas of homes in affluent neighbourhoods. We are conducting regular larviciding and fogging operations."
 
"Additionally, we are implementing a targeted cleanup programme in the homes of hospitalised patients based on their addresses. We are also running various awareness programmes. Hopefully, dengue cases in Dhaka North will come under control within a few days," he said.
 
Dhaka South Chief Health Officer Dr Fazle Shamsul Kabir told TBS, "Dengue is under control in Dhaka South City, with the exception of one or two areas. Last year, we received a high number of patients from specific areas, but this time we are seeing more cases in the Demra area. We are also actively conducting awareness campaigns for the public."
 
Dengue cases on the rise
As of Wednesday morning, 1,186 new dengue hospitalisations were reported in the past 24 hours, along with three new deaths. Of these deaths, one was from the Barishal division and two from Dhaka North City.

This year, there have been a total of 118 deaths in Dhaka South City Corporation and 34 in Dhaka North City Corporation.

In the Chattogram division, there have been 8,708 total cases and 24 deaths, while the Barishal division has reported 3,980 cases and 27 deaths. Currently, all eight divisions of the country have recorded deaths, with dengue patients found in every district.

Among the districts, Cox's Bazar has the highest number of dengue cases, reporting 3,684, followed by Narsingdi with 1,318 cases, Chattogram with 1,200, and Barguna with 1,111 cases.

In terms of fatalities, Dhaka Medical College Hospital has recorded the highest number of deaths at 44, followed by Mugda Medical College and Hospital with 28, Mitford Hospital with 18, and Chattogram Medical College Hospital with 15.

In 2000, Bangladesh first encountered the Aedes mosquito-borne disease, reporting 5,551 cases and 93 deaths, with 71% of the patients from Dhaka city and the remaining cases from 19 other cities.

Following this initial outbreak, dengue cases declined until 2018, during which most patients were identified in Dhaka City. However, currently, dengue cases have spread across the entire country.