Will the aviation hub dream take off?

The previous government made a lot of noise about transforming the country into an aviation hub, with most of the buzz focused on the massive 542,000 square metres third terminal at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (HSIA) in Dhaka—a centrepiece among their "megaprojects."

An airline hub, or hub airport, refers to an airport that airlines use as a central point outside their headquarters. This term also signifies an airport's connectivity to other airports: the broader the reach and the more routes available, the higher its flight frequency and, consequently, its status as a hub.

But how exactly would Bangladesh join the ranks of aviation hubs, especially with heavyweights like Dubai, Singapore, Bangkok, and Hong Kong already in the game? And even if there's potential, are we really on the right runway?

Ready for Liftoff?

"To make an airport a hub, you need strategic planning," Kazi Wahidul Alam, former board member of Biman Bangladesh Airlines and editor of Bangladesh Monitor, a travel magazine, told The Business Standard.

"We don't even know how many planes Biman will operate next year. There's no fleet planning; we're buying one or two planes at a time, whenever we can, while other airlines are purchasing hundreds of aircraft," he explained. "With this kind of growth plan, becoming a hub is a pipe dream. We're simply not ready." Alam added, "We lack the quality, planning, and financial strength necessary to turn this vision into reality. A third terminal may boost passenger comfort, but it's not enough to expand operational capabilities."

According to Alam, there should be an "open-sky policy," allowing any foreign airline to operate flights here. "In aviation hubs like Dubai, Singapore, Bangkok, and Kuala Lumpur, no airline faces restrictions on flights. Meanwhile, we regulate the frequency, arrivals, and departures of foreign airlines to protect our national carrier. We're hesitant to open the doors," he said.

Becoming an aviation hub requires years of meticulous planning and precise execution. Authorities often point to Singapore, a small nation that's become a major aviation hub, yet there's been little done here to follow its example.

"Countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan are aviation hubs today because they've treated aviation as a core industry and developed it accordingly. They've also built up their aviation workforce—pilots, engineers, ground staff—and created a robust ecosystem," explained former CAAB Chairman Air Vice Marshal Mahmud Hussain.

Hussain believes Bangladesh's biggest obstacle is the shortage of skilled manpower, especially at the policy level. According to him, effective decision-making requires those in charge to have a deep understanding of aviation, something that is sorely lacking at present.

We don't even know how many planes Biman will operate next year. There's no fleet planning; we're buying one or two planes at a time, whenever we can, while other airlines are purchasing hundreds of aircraft. With this kind of growth plan, becoming a hub is a pipe dream. We're simply not ready.

Kazi Wahidul Alam, former board member of Biman Bangladesh Airlines

Ground reality

A line that was often repeated by top officials of the last government was that Bangladesh would become an aviation hub due to its geographical advantage. Does Bangladesh really enjoy such advantages? 

"Yes, we have a geographical advantage due to our location we can connect east-west and north-south. However, Kolkata can do the exact same thing, and so can Myanmar. We need to be in that competition," said aviation expert ATM Nazrul Islam

"Another advantage we have is that many other airports are saturated with air traffic, our situation is a little better," he added.

Every day around 700-800 flights fly into Bangladeshi airspace. Out of these about 150-200 land here. They land elsewhere. But why?

"Compared to other countries, the price of our aviation fuel is high. Our ground handling charges, and operating costs are high. We cannot bring in more foreign airlines with these expenses," explained Islam.

Tourism could be another magnet for air traffic, yet this sector has been given lots of lip service while little has come to fruition.

"If you become a tourism hub, many people consider taking a let's say 12-hour transit here. There are countries where if you take transit there you get a free hotel stay on top of a free visa. Even if the tourist spends $10, that adds to their foreign reserve", said Nazrul.

"Meanwhile, our customs and immigration staff aren't exactly known for their warm welcome," he added.

The terminal

Currently, Dhaka Airport can handle eight million passengers and 500,000 tonnes of cargo per year. With the third terminal fully operational, HSIA's passenger capacity should climb to 24 million annually, including the older terminals—but that's only in theory.

Serving these additional passengers will mean accommodating more flights. According to JICA, HSIA will need to manage around 200,000 flights annually by 2030. However, experts say this won't be feasible with just one runway. To truly capitalise on the third terminal's potential, an additional independent runway is a must.

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) mandates that runways must be at least 1,034 meters apart to allow simultaneous takeoffs and landings using the Instrument Landing System (ILS). Reports indicate that if another runway were added to Dhaka Airport, the distance between the two would be only 300 meters—far below the required threshold.

"The airport should have had space for two independent runways. Not leaving the space was a big mistake," said  ATM Nazrul Islam.

Industry insiders note that planes often face 30-40 minute delays on taxiways before takeoff, with similar delays on landing due to traffic at HSIA. This bottleneck strains airlines' schedules and increases operational costs. Concerns are mounting that the third terminal's opening—and the rise in flight frequency—will only worsen the situation.

A plan for a second runway was set in motion by the previous government, but given the proximity issue, simultaneous takeoffs and landings won't be possible.

Work on the second runway was expected to start after the third terminal's opening, which, although 98 percent complete, won't be operational by October as previously scheduled.

Media reports suggest the delay is due to the consultant - tasked with recommending the terminal's operator and terms - not yet submitting their report. Last September, the Public-Private Partnership Authority from the Prime Minister's Office signed an agreement with the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a World Bank Group member, for advisory services on the terminal's operations and maintenance. The ousted Awami League government initially decided in principle for a Japanese consortium to manage the third terminal under a public-private partnership.

Under the plan, the Japanese company would oversee terminal operations, with CAAB responsible for security. The IFC report was also expected to outline CAAB's operating costs and profit-sharing terms with the vendor. After the government reviews the report, it will finalize the PPP agreement, enabling CAAB to start training staff and preparing for the terminal's trial run.

Operating the terminal will require approximately 6,000 staff working in four shifts. For now, our journey to becoming an aviation hub remains in a holding pattern.

More headwinds

Currently, Bangladeshi airlines operate just 45 aircraft, with an optimistic addition of 15 more this year, as outlined in the fleet expansion plan. Industry experts believe that Bangladesh is significantly trailing its neighbour across all metrics. Meanwhile, our neighbour India is on the verge of significantly increasing its airport capacity to 148 from only 74 in FY 2013-14, while Bangladesh has remained unchanged with its eight operational airports over the past decade.

Bangladesh is also struggling to reopen the six domestic airports that remain closed, as the infrastructure for takeoff and landing of aeroplanes is inadequate. The airfields in Ishwardi, Shamshernagar, Thakurgaon, Bogura, Lalmonirhat, and Cumilla were built during the British era and experienced commercial operations during the Pakistan period.  "There were so many airstrips built here during World War 2. Where are those strips today? If we had maintained them, they would have been really helpful," said Nazrul Islam.

Last year, the Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh (CAAB) made the decision to halt the construction of the Khan Jahan Ali Airport in Bagerhat, believing it would not yield profits, nearly twenty years after initiating the project.

The upgrade process for Saidpur Airport to become an international facility is currently on hold due to financial constraints, even though land acquisition has already commenced, as reported by CAAB sources.