As rebels gain grounds in Myanmar, can the Rohingya return?

The Arakan Army, an ethnic insurgent group fighting the junta government of Myanmar, seized a key port town, Paletwa, in Chin state on 14 January. The town is located to the east of the Bangladesh border and the river port is just 12km away. To the north is the Indian border.

This seizure is one of the many that preceded and followed a major coordinated offensive against Myanmar's military across the north-eastern region by an alliance of three well-armed militias of ethnic minorities. Dubbed Operation 1027, the numbers representing 27 October (2023) inspired resistance forces around the country to have launched attacks on the military, which is falling back on almost every front.

The fall of Paletwa happened only two days after a China-brokered ceasefire deal was agreed between the warring parties – that includes the Arakan Army – on 12 January. The effect of the deal, of course, was rightly presumed to be limited only in the areas bordering China.

With rebel activities intensified, Myanmar is heading towards a prolonged period of instability, if not outright a condition of a failed state.

As a new form of armed resistance by civilians and underground networks pose larger uncertainties in the already unsettled Myanmar, what does it mean for the one million-plus Rohingya refugees languishing in the camps in Bangladesh? What happens to the prospect of their return now?

Experts on the crisis say the prospects for a return of the refugees remain bleak.

Operation 1027 and a retreating military

Operation 1027 began in northern Shan State, bordering China, where rebel troops of the Three Brotherhood Alliance – which comprises MNDAA, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, and Arakan Army – claims to have captured hundreds of military outposts, and a number of towns and border gates so far.

Earlier this month, just before the ceasefire agreement was reached, rebel groups gained control of a key town called Laukkai, located near the Chinese border after weeks of fierce fighting with junta troops, seizing the military's regional headquarters.

Although the ceasefire deal means the insurgents' advances will stop in the areas adjacent to Chinese borders, experts are in doubt how long this ceasefire will hold, given the fact that dozens of such deals were agreed in the past that eventually broke down.

Commentators across the world have started asking if the current state of affairs in the country means the beginning of the end for Myanmar's junta. But this may be too early to tell.

"The ceasefire is applicable mainly to north-east Myanmar – in the areas bordering China. This is hardly relevant to the rest of the country where insurgencies are ongoing," Major General (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman, president of the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), told The Business Standard.

"The Brotherhood Alliance is claiming to have captured 250 military outposts, a dozen towns and five major border crossings through which crucial trade between China and Myanmar takes place," he added.

"It is to be seen how long this ceasefire holds. Because ceasefires were agreed on before but did not last long. China specifically mediated this ceasefire to open the trading routes and protect Chinese nationals living near the border," said Muniruzzaman, who also served as the director general of the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), a government think tank.

Muniruzzaman mentioned that in Rakhine and Chin states in Myanmar bordering Bangladesh, insurgent groups have gained strength more than any time before. They are in an advantageous position vis-à-vis the military.

But he doubts that the military junta will crumble in this situation.

"I don't think it will. Firstly, the crucial areas in central Myanmar are still under control of the junta. Secondly, ethnic insurgent groups are not interested in taking over central Myanmar; their interests lie in the power and resources within their states," Muniruzzaman continued.

"So, the re-energised rebel groups will not gain control over too much," the expert opined.

Fate of Rohingyas remains unaltered

Late last year, news broke that under a tripartite deal, 3,000 Rohingyas would be repatriated by December 2023. This never happened.

A source related to Myanmar in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs seeking to remain anonymous tells TBS that due to the internal conflict in Myanmar, the repatriation initiative of Rohingyas has "slowed down a bit".

"The repatriation was supposed to have started before December. But it would not be safe for the Rohingyas to return to Rakhine under the current circumstances. We are getting various reports that at least 60% of Rakhine is controlled by insurgent groups," the official says.

The official mentions that due to the war situation in Myanmar, it has become difficult to get daily necessities there. He adds that even the embassy officials of Bangladesh are facing trouble managing their necessary supplies in Myanmar. Currently, Bangladesh has an Embassy in Yangon and a consular service in Rakhine.

"The war situation in Myanmar is against the interests of countries like China, Japan and India. So, they are also trying to stop the war there," the official had said just a day before the ceasefire deal was reached, implying that the end of the conflict could resolve the Rohingya issue.

But the ceasefire allowed for little hope of stability, as evident from the rebel takeover of Paletwa in Chin State, located close to Rakhine State where the Rohingyas hail from. The Arakan Army is also operating in Rakhine, which was previously known as Arakan province.

But even stability wouldn't do much for the Rohingyas, it seems.

"The military junta has no genuine interest in repatriation. Period. Perhaps they would essentially be showing some sort of token repatriation. That's the best they can do," Shahab Enam Khan, a professor of International Relations, Jahangirnagar University, tells TBS.

He says the conflict in Myanmar will not be over anytime soon.

Long history of insurgency

Insurgencies have been ongoing in Myanmar since 1948, the year of independence of the country. The conflict is mainly along ethnic lines, where dozens of ethnic armed groups have been fighting Myanmar's military.

But the 2021 military coup d'état which saw Aung San Suu Kyi ousted from power and arrested, and subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests, triggered a significant escalation in the insurgency.

As of January 2024, the armed insurgent groups fighting against the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (junta) and allied Ethnic Armed Organisations include the National Unity Government, Shan State Army – South and North, Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Organisation, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Chin National Front, Karen National Union, Ta'ang National Liberation Army, and Mon National Liberation Army.

Repatriation is not a priority

"There is a lack of interest among the conflicting parties about repatriation, which is not a priority for them right now. Among them is the Arakan Army, which will be an important factor in the repatriation question in the future," says Shahab Enam.

The professor mentions that Myanmar's National Unity Government, the government in exile formed by the lawmakers and politicians ousted in the 2021 coup, has started to recognise that Rohingyas are a part of Myanmar. He says the recognition is encouraging.

He asserts that seeing the repatriation issue only from the perspective of Bangladesh-Myanmar relationship is wrong.

"Repatriation cannot be seen from only a bilateral perspective; it has to be seen from a multilayer perspective. It is a complicated process," the professor says.

"Bangladesh's focus should not only be on the military government, but also on the National Unity Government, and the rebel groups including the Arakan Army," he emphasises.

Pointing at the long-standing tensions between the Rohingya and the Rakhine people, Shahab Enam says this gap has to be resolved for the repatriation to be meaningful. "The Rakhine-Rohingya relationship is critical. This is another factor that will determine the repatriation process," he explains.

The ongoing rebel activity in Myanmar is going to weaken the junta and in the long term there is a possibility that a meaningful democratic government will come. In that case, Bangladesh has to engage with every layer of the Rohingya issue for a sustainable resolution of the crisis, Professor Shahab Enam says.

The BIPSS president Muniruzzaman, too, said that he does not see any meaningful repatriation prospect in near future, considering the Tatmadaw's comfortable position in the power-balance stemming from its association with China, India and Russia. He does not think that the Bangladesh government will discuss the Rohingya repatriation issue with the insurgent groups at this point.

Earlier, Dr Nasir Uddin, refugee expert and professor of Anthropology at Chittagong University, played down last year's repatriation plan that never took off.

"Even if 5,000 Rohingyas are repatriated every year, it will take more than 200 years for one-million-plus refugees to return to Myanmar," he pointed out.

Rohingyas don't feel safe to return

He also told TBS that the Rohingyas had lately been more eager to return to Myanmar in the changing situation where foreign donations for the refugees were dwindling followed by significantly reduced rations. But intensified conflict in Myanmar means they are having a second thought on returning.

"In terms of security, Myanmar is more unstable now than in 2017. So, I don't think the Rohingyas will be desperate to return under the circumstances," Prof Nasir Uddin said.

The Rohingya leadership themselves hold similar views as that of professor Nasir Uddin's understanding of the situation.

Nur Hossain, a community leader (majhi) from Teknaf Shalbagan camp, told TBS, "One of my nephews, a cousin and some friends are still staying in Arakan (Rakhine). I talk to them regularly. They keep telling us that the security situation there is not good at all.

"They are telling us that if we can't return there with the guarantee of safety and security, it will be very difficult to live in Arakan. Currently, the security there is zero percent.

"Friends and relatives advise us to return to our homeland only if the international community can make the Burmese government grant us citizenship and ensure full security."

Rohingya migration risks rising

Meanwhile, the foreign ministry official feared that due to the repatriation being delayed, challenges relating to the security in the Rohingya camps, camp management, pressure on the host community, Rohingyas taking up local jobs, and Rohingyas attempting to flee the country by sea will increase in the future.

As the humanitarian donations for the refugees dwindle, Bangladesh recently sought loans from global lenders – for the first time since the 2017 Rohingya influx – to support development efforts for the refugees and the affected host communities in the country.

BIPSS President ANM Muniruzzaman said efforts should be continued to mobilise international support for the refugee operations. However, given what he called "humanitarian fatigue", and the rise of fresh humanitarian crises in Ukraine and Gaza, chances of an increase in foreign donations are slim.

Mentioning that the US and the Western Europe have been key donors to refugee operations, he emphasised that relationships with these partners must not be strained.

The expert is of the opinion that temporary work permits can be issued to Rohingyas to engage them in limited economic activities so they can earn their living instead of being wholly reliant on humanitarian aid.

"But it is subject to vital discussion and debate. We have not had enough discussion on this," Muniruzzaman said.