China might have to curb its ambitions

There are two things when it comes to the issue of China: one is how the Chinese view themselves; the other is how the other powers view China. China definitely has ambition. But the main driver of that ambition was their ever-empowering economy. 

According to what we are seeing or what is available in the global press, the Chinese economy is in a bit of trouble. So, if the Chinese economy becomes troublesome, then China may have to reconsider their ambition or whatever projection they wanted to have. So, from the Chinese side, China might moderate its ambitions in 2024.

From the US side, I sense that as the elections are coming up, the China issue will continue to vibrate in US domestic politics. Then on the European side, I think Europeans are also trying to find out a modus operandi with regard to China. So, it is possible that they will try to be in the middle between China and the US. But for China, times are difficult because both the US and the EU now have an increasingly negative view of China, and these are the two major markets for the Asian country as well.

So, any tension with Europe and the US will have a negative impact on Chinese economic strength. So it means that. We might see tension, but China might try to find a more peaceful accommodation with Japan, with the European Union and the US.

During the APEC Summit in San Francisco, Xi Jinping gave that indication that he wants to patch up with the Americans; he invited the American business community to come back to China, invest there, and so on and so forth.

Recently, there was a visit to China from the EU. So I think China is trying to patch things up, but this process might intensify next year. I sense that China would have to moderate its other ambitions as well to maintain that kind of relationship or to give more energy to that kind of reconciliation.

Sketch: TBS

I think the Middle East wants China to play some role. But given the fact that China is still on the normative side, Chinese diplomacy looks good. But you know the Middle East is a real power play. So there, I'm not very sure how much they can do. This is the area where China might work with the US. China and the US may also collaborate on climate issues.

So there are areas where China needs to be smart because now we are seeing that Middle Eastern countries are looking at China as an alternative. I mean there is a desire there to get more Chinese support. But the issue is that China has limitations with regard to its capacity to influence global events. With that kind of limitation, we can see China playing some normative role. But the role would still be secondary to other powers, such as the US.

I don't think there will be major changes in the Middle East because the Palestine issue has now come to the centre of attention. So it means that everybody is now focused there. So yes, there might be some tension over whether governments are needed to support the Palestinians or not. But I see little domestic compulsion or domestic change taking place in the Middle Eastern countries.