The art of deception: Decoys in modern warfare

The Russians used fake targets to deceive the Ukrainians. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

In the landscape of modern warfare, the principles of deception articulated by Sun Tzu over two millennia ago remain profoundly relevant. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shed light on the ever-evolving tactics of modern warfare, where high-tech equipment like long-range missiles and drones often take centre stage. Yet, amid the focus on advanced technology, a less sophisticated but equally crucial aspect remains relatively underreported: the use of decoy targets.

Decoy warfare is an ancient tactic, brought to new levels of sophistication and effectiveness in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The concept is simple—employ fake targets to deceive the enemy, drawing fire away from real assets and thereby preserving valuable equipment and personnel. 

However, the effectiveness and the strategic depth of these decoys are subjects both sides prefer to keep under wraps.

Intriguingly, Chinese battlefield analyses published in PLA Daily (People's Liberation Army Daily), the official newspaper of the Chinese military, offer some rare insights into the effectiveness of decoys. Their findings, based on extensive wargaming, simulations, and analysis of historical battles, suggest that a one-to-one ratio of real to decoy targets can increase the survivability of military forces by up to 40%. 

This means that by deploying an equal number of real and decoy assets, a military unit can significantly reduce its vulnerability to enemy attacks. The analysis further reveals that when the ratio rises to three decoys for every real target, the consumption of enemy munitions increases by a staggering 70%, with an additional 50% boost in survivability. 

These statistics underscore the strategic value of decoys, transforming them from mere distractions into critical components of modern military doctrine.

The effectiveness of these tactics is vividly illustrated by Ukraine's use of fake HIMARS rocket launchers. In the summer of 2022, Russia claimed to have destroyed 44 HIMARS units, a significant overestimation considering the United States had only sent 16 to Ukraine. The Russian military had been deceived by inflatable decoys, a tactic that harkens back to World War II's Operation Fortitude, where Allied forces used inflatable tanks to mislead German forces about the true landing site of the Normandy invasion.

The production of these decoys, such as those by the Czech company Inflatech, is a testament to the ongoing importance of deception in warfare. Inflatech's reluctance to disclose the number of decoys sent to Ukraine only adds to the mystique and strategic ambiguity essential to effective military deception.

Decoys serve multiple purposes on the battlefield. First and foremost, they protect lives by drawing enemy fire away from real personnel and equipment. The economics of decoys further enhance their appeal: a few thousand dollars spent on a decoy can save millions in high-value military hardware and potentially many lives.

Additionally, decoys force the enemy to expend precious resources. Russian drones like the Lancet, costing over $30,000 each, and Krasnopol precision artillery rounds, at $35,000 per shell, can be wasted on decoys. This creates a significant economic strain on the adversary, diverting their munitions from actual targets.

However, the effectiveness of decoys relies not just on their presence but on their quality and placement. Modern surveillance technology, including drones with high-definition cameras and thermal imaging, demands increasingly sophisticated decoys. 

Simple inflatables are often insufficient; instead, high-quality decoys made from wood and metal, complete with electromagnetic signatures and heating elements, are necessary to maintain their plausibility.

A prime example of the tactical application of decoys is the Battle of Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces used mannequins to mislead and ambush Russian troops. This tactic highlights the value of decoys in creating strategic and tactical advantages, causing confusion, and enabling ambushes.

Yet, as technology advances, so do the challenges. Decoys must now withstand scrutiny from high-resolution surveillance and thermal imaging. This has led to innovations such as using heating elements and placing decoys in locations where real equipment had previously operated to create convincing environmental footprints.

The Russians have also employed clever deception tactics, such as creating entire fake refuelling positions and trenches filled with mannequins. These decoys are sometimes left in place long enough for the enemy to grow complacent, only to be replaced with real troops and equipment, setting up deadly ambushes.

Decoys are only one element of a broader toolkit that includes mobility, concealment, and deception. The interplay of these tactics demonstrates that, despite technological advancements, the fundamental principles of warfare, as articulated by Sun Tzu, remain relevant.

As we continue to observe and analyse the conflict in Ukraine, it is clear that deception, mobility, and concealment will remain pivotal in military strategy. The effectiveness of these tactics will likely shape the future of warfare, emphasising that while technology evolves, the art of war retains its timeless essence.

Abdullah Hasan Sayed is a development practitioner and International Relations graduate.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.