Pakistan 1970 and Pakistan 2024

There are the parallels to be drawn about politics in Pakistan as the country grapples with the peculiar conditions arising out of the general election of 8 February.

The parallels concern 1970, when the country found itself hurled into a crisis following its very first election in December. In 2024, a similar crisis confronts Pakistan.

In 1970, Pakistan was under the rule of its second martial law administration, headed by the army chief, General Agha Mohammad Yahya Khan. When it decreed the general election, and as the political parties in the two wings of the country took to the hustings, military intelligence informed the junta that the Awami League would not come by more than 60 seats in the 300-seat (apart from the 13 reserved seats for women) National Assembly.

In 2024, the Pakistan army is not in power but nevertheless exercises enormous authority and influence from behind the scenes under its chief of staff, General Asim Munir. Prior to the election a few days ago, military intelligence had the army top brass know that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf of Imran Khan, without its electoral symbol and with its candidates running as independents, could scrape together no more than 35 seats in a National Assembly of 266 directly elected seats.

The calculations of the army, both in 1970 and 2024, turned out wrong. In East Pakistan, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman led the Awami League to victory with 160 seats in the National Assembly. The Awami League thus became the majority party in Pakistan, with its leader poised to take over as Pakistan's first elected Prime Minister.

Today, in 2024, the PTI has romped home with the largest number of seats in the National Assembly, possibly enough to form a government in Islamabad (though reports speak of many of its seats being taken away under military instructions). Like the Awami League in 1970, the PTI has left all other parties behind. Where in 1970, nearly all political parties were arrayed against Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his party, excoriating them as secessionists, but could not prevent their electoral triumph, in 2024 a propaganda machine involving the army and other political parties in a campaign against the PTI failed to prevent Imran Khan's victory.

There are the other parallels between the elections of 1970 and 2024. In both instances it was the Pakistan army and its political sycophants who had egg on the face once the election results were made public. The one significant difference is that while the Yahya Khan junta played with time before outlawing the Awami League and imprisoning Bangabandhu in March 1971, the Asim Munir team has already had Imran Khan convicted in a number of cases and, while not banning the PTI, has emasculated it in the hope that it would never rise again as a political force. Yahya Khan believed in 1971 that the Awami League was finished for good, that Sheikh Mujibur Rahman had become irrelevant.

In the aftermath of the 1970 election, Pakistan's generals promoted the cause of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, for they were not ready to have a Bengali-dominated government in Islamabad. In 2024, the generals pinned their hopes on Mian Nawaz Sharif as the man they could install in office as Prime Minister for a fourth time.

In 1970, Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party did not win the election but came a distant second to the Awami League. In 2024, Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League trail the Independents/PTI and is not morally qualified to form a government.

In 1971, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was tried by a military court on charges of waging war against Pakistan and condemned to death. In 2024, Imran Khan is in incarceration owing to the military influencing the judiciary into imposing different sentences on him.

In December 1971, days after the emergence of Bangladesh through a War of Liberation, the new government of Z.A. Bhutto, set up after the fall of the Yahya regime, went into negotiations with the imprisoned Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, eventually releasing him early the following month.

In February 2024, with the PTI coming out on top at the election, Pakistan's generals are in clandestine talks with the imprisoned Imran Khan. Offers have reportedly been made to him on the courts giving him bail in return for his help in finding a way out of the crisis which has unfolded.

Fifty three years ago, in 1970, the Pakistan army was unable to prevent the Awami League from leading Bangladesh to freedom. Fifty three years on, in 2024, it is in the humiliating position of acknowledging the primacy of Imran Khan, a politician it has sought to destroy in every way.

Sketch: TBS

Syed Badrul Ahsan writes on politics and diplomacy