Flight routes are being thrown into chaos with closure of Russian airspace

Since before the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has been an integral part of global aviation. Hundreds of flights used to crisscross its vast land mass on any given day to connect Europe and the US with Asia. PJSC Aeroflot-Russian Airlines, among the oldest carriers in the world, has served about 50 countries with state-of-the-art planes from Airbus SE and Boeing Co. And overflight rights for more than 300,000 jets using Russian airspace each year brought in hundreds of millions of dollars in fees for the government.

But the attack on Ukraine has upended decades of ever-closer alliances in commercial aviation. After the UK barred Aeroflot and other Russian carriers from entering its airspace late last month and the European Union introduced sweeping sanctions, Russia retaliated, banning virtually every country in Europe—including historically neutral Switzerland—from its airspace. The US swiftly followed suit, closing its airspace to Russia.

The move has burned a giant hole in the global aviation map. Crossing Russia is the fastest route between Europe and Northern Asia; circumnavigating the vast country is extremely difficult. Already, Finnair, whose long-haul trips to Seoul, Shanghai, and Tokyo rely on access to Siberian airspace, has said many flights no longer make economic sense.

The retaliation is reminiscent of the Cold War era, when Soviet airspace was long closed to Western airlines, forcing them to make stopovers at refueling outposts such as Anchorage in Alaska or take the wide London-India-Hong Kong route. "The Russians have used an incredibly powerful tool in closing their airspace," says Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who specializes in security issues. "It is the highway of international aviation. For the globalized economy, it's clearly a terrible development."

Number of jets using Russian airspace each year: 300,000

Although modern aircraft have far greater ranges—Singapore Airlines holds the record with its New York-to-Singapore nonstop, almost 19 hours—rerouted flights are time-consuming, increase pollution, and stand to become a considerable financial burden for an industry still reeling from the coronavirus pandemic. Already, avoiding Ukrainian air space had added to flight times on corridors connecting hubs such as London, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt with airports in the Persian Gulf, and flight distances and times between cities in Europe and Asia had lengthened.

While airlines have stopped flying many passenger routes since Russia sealed off its airspace, cargo flights point to the planning headaches facing airlines that do manage to get aloft. With trans-Siberian routes now barred, goods transported by air to Europe from factories in China, South Korea, and Japan are taking more circuitous routes that add to already soaring freight rates, according to logistics consultant Brian Clancy. Lufthansa Cargo's regular flight from Frankfurt to Tokyo is 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) longer than before the restriction, increasing flight time by more than two hours and burning about 18 tons more jet fuel, according to the tracking website FlightRadar24.

It's not just commercial aviation that's feeling the pinch. Sanctions have also targeted wealthy Russians accustomed to roaming the skies in their Dassault, Gulfstream, and Bombardier jets. Now some of the country's ultrawealthy who are subject to EU restrictions are on the move. Metals tycoon Alisher Usmanov's Airbus A340 took off from Munich on 28 February, leaving EU airspace.

As an economic fallback, most European airlines can still rely on their lucrative trans-Atlantic routes to bring in the bulk of their long-haul profits. But the longer the ban exists, the more it creates a possible opportunity for Chinese and other Asian carriers, which haven't been banned, to fill some of the flight slots.

EU sanctions announced on 27 February ban the supply to Russia of "all goods and technology" linked to aircraft. That's prompted aircraft-leasing companies that own a sizable portion of global fleets to stop doing business with Russian airlines and seek the return of hundreds of jets—something that may not be possible in the current environment. The six largest foreign lessors have about 300 aircraft in Russia, according to London-based aviation consulting firm Ishka Ltd.

"It is a sad moment," says John Strickland, who heads London-based JLS Consulting Associates. "Aviation is the biggest enabler of cultural exchange between nations. Since the end of the Cold War, Russians have wanted to travel far and wide, and there are several airlines that have made it their business." For now, a divided sky above Russia has darkened the future of free travel.

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Bloomberg, and is published by special syndication arrangement