Making sense of an oil kingdom's climate summit

Cop28 begins in Dubai on Thursday, with around 70,000 people expected to attend the behemoth climate conference. It is set to be one of the most controversial climate summits in recent memory –being hosted by the United Arab Emirates, an oil-dependent nation. The president of the summit, Sultan Al Jaber, is also the head of the state oil company. 

Little is publicly known about Al Jaber, despite the pivotal role he will play in shaping the ambition and outcome of this climate summit. 

Here we look at what might be achieved at the summit, and the key technologies and policies being discussed.

Carbon capture's cheerleaders

Billions of dollars are being poured into carbon capture technology by governments and businesses around the world. The technology has become the darling of the fossil fuel sector, and will be a major discussion point at Cop28. But carbon capture is yet to prove itself at the scale needed, and there have been notable high-profile failures of projects that haven't been able to make money. The summit would obviously include discussions on hashing out a profitable business model for deploying the technology.

Message to rich world: Eat less meat

The world's most developed nations will be told to curb their excessive appetite for meat as part of the first comprehensive plan to bring the global agrifood industry into line with the Paris climate agreement.

The global food systems' road map to 1.5C is expected to be published by the United Nations' Food & Agriculture Organization during the Cop28 summit next month. Nations that over-consume meat will be advised to limit their intake, while developing countries — where under-consumption of meat adds to a prevalent nutrition challenge — will need to improve their livestock farming, according to the FAO.

From farm to fork, food systems account for about a third of global greenhouse gas emissions and much of that footprint is linked to livestock farming — a major source of methane, deforestation and biodiversity loss. Although non-binding, the FAO's plan is expected to inform policy and investment decisions and give a push to the food industry's climate transition which has lagged other sectors in commitments.

The guidance on meat is intended to send a clear message to governments. But politicians in richer nations typically shy away from policies aimed at influencing consumer behaviour, especially where it involves cutting consumption of everyday items.

The Rome-based UN agency, tasked with improving the agricultural sector and nutrition, is seeking to strike a balance between the climate transition and ensuring food security for the growing global population. So as well as calling for less meat consumption for the world's well fed, the plan would also encourage farmers in developing countries to bolster productivity of their livestock and supply more sustainably.

Remembering a climate champion, extending his work

If all goes according to plan, Cop28 will end with an agreement on the implementation of the Loss and Damage fund, which seeks to compensate developing countries that are impacted by climate change.

The fund was established at Cop27 in Egypt, but it is now up to the summit to agree on the rules that govern it.

Bangladesh's Saleemul Huq was a pre-eminent climate scientist and champion for developing countries. For many years, he was a lone warrior trying to bring the issues of adaptation and loss and damage to the UN negotiating table.

The agreement on loss and damage at Cop27 was his biggest triumph.

His death in late October prompted an outpouring of emotion across the climate world. While the Dubai summit would unmistakably recall his contributions, there would also be active discussions on how to push forward his plans.

Tripling renewables

Solar is an unparalleled climate success story, and has become the cheapest form of electricity to install in most countries around the world. This has fed into one of Cop28's ambitions, to reach an agreement to triple global renewable electricity capacity by 2030.

The rich man's energy club

In October, the International Energy Agency published its flagship report: The World Energy Outlook. It made some big calls. It says in the year 2030, there will be 10 times as many electric cars on the road as today, 80% of all new power generation will be solar or wind, and demand for fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – will have peaked.

What the IEA says makes a big difference to how governments tweak their energy policies. But how did an organisation formed by a handful of oil-dependent countries in the 1970s come to hold so much influence over our response to the climate crisis?

This surprising u-turn is what is expected to drive the climate change fight over the next decade and concerned rich players would play a major role in Cop28 negotiations.

Point of attention should be the host the UAE itself as it is betting its economic rejuvenation schemes on fast non-oil economy expansion and growth of green technologies.

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Bloomberg, and is published by special syndication arrangement.