A new dawn for a first-time youth-led political party?
After the violent overthrow of the Hasina government, the question that has been circulated around the country — will there be a dominant youth-led alternative to challenge the traditional two-party notion in the next polls?
There is an interesting graffiti on a wall beside the road connecting Jatrabari to Kamalapur. It reads — Nouka ar dhaaner shish, dui shaap er eki bish. (Whether it's boat – the electoral symbol of Awami League – or sheaf of paddy – the electoral symbol of Bangladesh Nationalist Party – they are equally bad). Arguments can be made whether such a comparison is justified, given that no violent revolution was ever needed to remove BNP from power, but the graffiti do represent the mindset of a section of the youth, who have defied death to remove Sheikh Hasina from power.
The political landscape of Bangladesh has been dominated by two families—the Sheikh and Zia families—who have collectively controlled the reins of power for 41 of the 53 years since the country's independence.
The Sheikh family has ruled the country for 23 years. After the emergence of independent Bangladesh, the Awami League won the first general elections in 1973 but was overthrown in 1975 after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The party was forced by subsequent military regimes onto the political sidelines, and many of its senior leaders and activists were executed or jailed.
After the restoration of democracy in 1990, the AL came to power in 1996 under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina. And since 2009, it was continuously in power between 2009 and 2024, before she was forced to flee the country in the face of a violent revolution.
On the other hand, the Zia family, with the moribund Khaleda Zia and her son Tarique Rahman at the helm of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has been the other dominant force. It has been in power for 13 years, winning the 1979 and 1981 presidential elections as well as the 1991, 1996, and 2001 general elections.
Now, after the violent overthrow of the Hasina government on 5 August 2024, the question that has been circulated around the country — Will there be a dominant youth-led alternative to challenge the traditional two-party notion in the next polls?
For this, we need to look into the socio-political factors that created such dominant parties.
Both BNP and AL aggregate citizen and group preferences, and fuse those interests into a consistent long-term program. Without this partisan brokering function, independent actors would float around the political space chaotically.
Voters usually have little understanding of how their vote choices might translate into public policy; they are not interested in the complex dynamics of democratic rights and institutions. All they want are simple symbols like Mujib and Zia or boat and paddy.
Now, a democracy of only civic associations would be too fragmented to function. Many civic associations come and go. Scale and structure matter for consistency and equality of representation, which few parties can consistently achieve.
And hence, there are so many cases of two-party democratic systems across the world.
Perhaps, in Bangladesh, this entrenched two-party system has stifled political diversity, relegating other political entities to the fringes of the political arena. There are some minor parties who have held a considerable sway, like Jamaat-e-Islami or Jatiya Party, but none of them are dominant enough to challenge BNP or AL for the parliament. And the rest are just small fish, at least in vote share.
In a country where even personal relationships are determined by who you vote for, breaking the two-party cycle is a herculean task indeed. AL and BNP have deeply entrenched patronage networks that extend across all levels of society, from civil servants to business leaders, and even professionals like lawyers, doctors, and teachers.
These networks are crucial for maintaining their hold on power, as loyalty to one of the two major parties often determines access to resources, jobs, and opportunities.
However, the titanic shift in Bangladeshi politics caused by the July Revolution has changed all equations.
The government's violent crackdown on protesters, which led to numerous deaths and injuries, only intensified the public's anger, turning the student-led protest into a nationwide civil disobedience movement.
"I could never vote in my life. I will cast my first vote for the young party who would love the country, think of the people, and not misuse power."
This Gen-Z-led uprising signals a potential shift in the political dynamics of Bangladesh, where the younger generation is increasingly unwilling to accept the status quo. The youth has shown the country — Yes, our voice matters.
Many of the youth feel increasingly disconnected from the political process dominated by the two parties. This discontent has created fertile ground for new political movements.
Already there seems to be a move to form a new young revolutionaries-led political party. The Students Against Discrimination leaders are travelling across the 64 districts to talk to the injured protesters, youth leaders, and general people.
Also, a 55-member platform called the National Citizens' Committee was launched on 8 September, with Muhammad Nasiruddin Patwari as the convener and Akhtar Hossain, a former social welfare secretary of Dhaka University Central Students' Union, as the member secretary.
A large section of the people online are hopeful about the developments, hoping that a new youth-led party will be formed soon; and the supporters of the SAD are hopeful about them contesting in the next election.
But the question remains: can these organisations coalesce into a viable third force that can challenge the hegemony of BNP and AL?
Lessons from India and Pakistan
To understand how a new political force might emerge in Bangladesh, it is useful to look at examples from neighbouring countries.
In India, the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerged from the anti-corruption movement of 2011, which was fueled by widespread frustration with the corruption and inefficiency of the Indian National Congress (INC). Arvind Kejriwal and his then-companions created a party which is currently the governing party in the state of Punjab and the union territory of Delhi.
AAP's success was built on its ability to tap into this public anger, presenting itself as a clean, accountable alternative to the traditional parties.
AAP's strategy involved building a grassroots movement that emphasised transparency, honesty, and direct involvement in governance. The party's use of localised manifestos and its reliance on an extensive volunteer network allowed it to connect with voters on issues that directly affected their lives.
Moreover, AAP's focus on urban middle-class voters, who were disillusioned with the established parties, helped it gain a foothold in Delhi, eventually leading to its recognition as a national party. Its penetration to the urban middle-class was so thorough that even the famed YouTuber Dhruv Rathee once created their online election campaign contents pro bono.
Any third party in Bangladesh can cash on the urban sentiment, just like AAP. However, they would still have to deal with the fact that there is no Kejriwal, a prominent activist and winner of the Ramon Magsaysay Award, among their ranks.
Similarly, in Pakistan, the rise of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) under Imran Khan shows how a new party can disrupt the political status quo. PTI capitalised on public frustration with the entrenched political dynasties and the military's influence over politics, and in Pakistan, this axis has not let the democratic system to stand.
Khan's populist rhetoric and smart use of social media, combined with his promise of bringing democracy and ending corruption, resonated with a broad spectrum of the population.
Even after his ousting from power, Khan's ability to position himself as an anti-establishment figure has maintained his appeal among many Pakistanis, especially those disillusioned with the traditional power structures. I once met a young university student who was a party member of PTI. He was even injured during a protest demanding Imran Khan's release.
I asked him, "Why Imran Khan?"
His reply was, "Only he has the guts to speak up to the military."
Such is the image of Imran Khan now, even though when he first came to power in August 2018, the widespread belief was that it was the result of his entente with the military elites.
But, Imran Khan himself had been in the political arena from 1996. His success took 22 years to come. Same goes for Kejriwal, who had been an anti-corruption activist from 1999. Unlike the young faces of Bangladeshi revolution, they had already become an icon in the political arena.
The potential for a new political force in Bangladesh
The lessons from India and Pakistan suggest that a new political force in Bangladesh would need to tap into the widespread discontent with the existing parties, particularly among the youth.
"Every person has the right to form a political party," said the veteran political theorist and prominent activist Farhad Mazhar, "After such a mass-uprising, people will undoubtedly express their desires and enjoy their newfound political freedom through various parties, whether it is the youths or the older people. For this reason, I feel like it is a positive sign that people are voicing their demands for a new political party."
"And also, it seems that they think that the major two parties are unable to fulfil their demands and failed to represent them properly."
"The conventional political parties have not been able to uproot the fascist regime. From this, we can understand that the popular support is not behind them. If it was so, then the mass uprising would have been led by the BNP. But no, the youth have led it," he added.
So, to him, it is evident that the people trust the youth. And they want to break away from the two-party cycle. The people may understand bits of the youth's ideology, they may not understand the rest of it. But, they have shown us that their aspirations and dreams are reflected by the youth's activism.
However, successfully braving through a revolution and transitioning into a brand new political party are two different ball games. That is how Dr Abdul Latif Masum, retired professor of the Department of Government and Politics, Jahangirnagar University, and former vice chancellor of Patuakhali Science and Technology University, views the situation.
"We are grateful to the youth who delivered us from the 17-year-long fascism. They have done something the political parties have not been able to do in years. But becoming a dominant political party in a few years is a very different question altogether."
"A dominant political party like BNP or AL has connections to various stakeholders of the state, like civil society, bureaucracy, and local administration. In a complex political landscape such as ours, gaining mass popularity and acceptance is a tough job."
"But what they can do is play the long game," he suggested, "give smart campaigns, engage with the voters. That way, in a few years, they can become a strong force."
Unmesh Roy, the chairman of the Department of Bangla at the Barisal University, has been an active supporter of the July Revolution. He was even threatened with suspension from his University position. Being a lifelong activist, he sees the growing support for the new third force being constrained by its urban supporter base.
"Unless a party has an active committee at the ward or union level, it has no chance to become a viable force in power politics," he says.
"Looks, even a farmer is a supporter of either BNP or AL. Can the new party reach the farmers? This is the penetration that separates the two dominant parties from all the other parties."
"We have seen many new parties rise and fall. They are content with press briefings and seminars. But parties that come from capitalising a particular issue will be forgotten once the issue is subsided. Social media perception does not translate to votes, you know? What they can be is a pressure group at best."
For such a movement to succeed, it must avoid the pitfalls that have plagued previous attempts to break the two-party system, most notably by Jatiya Party in the 1980s or the minus-2 formula in 2007-2008. Exploiting the power vacuum post-revolution, the new party may succeed, thinks Zahid Ahsan, a writer who was an active activist in the revolution.
"The new party may become a dominant force if it can preserve the spirit of the revolution. During the revolution, all binaries were broken. It was an inclusive force. And if the new party can encapsulate inclusiveness and go beyond the typical political binaries, it will be welcomed."
One of the key challenges will be building a broad-based coalition that can appeal to a diverse range of voters, including those in rural areas who have traditionally been loyal to the major parties.
This will require a careful balancing act, as the new party will need to maintain its core values of accountability, transparency, and democratic reform while also addressing the immediate concerns of ordinary citizens, such as employment, education, and healthcare.
Another crucial factor will be leadership. The movement will need a leader or a group of leaders who can articulate a clear vision for the future, someone who can unite the various factions within the movement and present a credible alternative to the existing political leadership.
This leader must also be able to navigate the complex political landscape of Bangladesh, building alliances with other parties and groups while maintaining the movement's independence and integrity. And without a leader, a party is just a faceless name on the poster.
Unmesh Roy pointed it out as well, "Even Imran Khan was somebody before he became the prime minister. Yet he had to be on the field for 20 years. Without an icon, no party can become a dominant force in the subcontinent."
Will the young revolutionaries be able to create a formidable political party?
The Gen-Z, which has grown up in the digital age, is more connected, informed, and politically aware than previous generations. They have used social media and other digital platforms to organise, mobilise, and amplify their voices, despite government attempts to shut down the internet and restrict access to information.
This tech-savvy generation is also less tolerant of corruption, authoritarianism, and the entrenched political elites that have dominated Bangladeshi politics for decades, as evident by their mass participation in the revolution.
Their demands for greater transparency, accountability, and democratic reform may resonate with a broader segment of the population, including many who have traditionally supported the Awami League or BNP but are now disillusioned with the direction of the country.
"The success of the July Revolution could inspire a new wave of political activism in Bangladesh that challenges the status quo," said Suriya Binta Junnat, a student of Dhaka University.
However, for this to happen, the movement will need to transition from a protest movement to a political force that can contest and win elections. This will require not only mobilising voters but also building a strong organisational structure, developing a clear political platform, and engaging in the day-to-day work of politics, from candidate selection to fundraising to voter outreach.
"I am sceptical about their ability to complete all these things within a few years," she said, "So even though both AL and BNP feel like the two sides of the same coin to me, I don't really see any drastic change coming any time soon."
Tanvir Thamid, a non-resident student and activist, has flown home from the United States to join the protests in July.
"It would be ideal for us to witness a political uprising led by the student representatives who guided us during the movement. However, the likelihood and feasibility of this happening seem very low, especially since these entities have done little to connect with the grassroots. This infrastructural limitation is further compounded by their lack of effort in establishing a political identity on the national stage."
It seems to him like a utopian idea that the youth leaders would suddenly become a contender in national politics against parties like the BNP. In his opinion, their best option is to attempt a coalition with larger parties for the upcoming national election and gradually build a genuine political and democratic identity from there.
"Had they shown any attempts to organise a proper political structure, I believe many of us would have been interested in joining them," he said, echoing a sentiment that has been on the rise since the revolution.
"A significant portion of our generation, who participated in this movement, has become politically aware and would be eager to exercise democracy by being part of a political party that directly represents them," he added, "We accepted their leadership during the revolution and risked our lives to bring an end to fascism. However, the key question now is how they will capitalise on that support and manifest it into a tangible political force."
One of the biggest concerns is the organisation and mobilisation of the new party. Farhad Mazhar thinks that the youth are capable enough to organise a strong party. He seems confident about the capability and the popularity of the young leaders.
"The youth who have led such a historic mass uprising will be able to manage a party—anyone with common sense can see that. It is obvious that there is an existing organisation and coordination among the students, they are just yet to name it as a political party."
"We have seen how powerful their coordination and cohesion are. We have seen its result as well. So it is quite normal to assume that they are a strong organised force. In the future, their organisational capability will be immense."
But, there are sceptics like Meem Arafat Manab, an activist and lecturer at BRAC University.
"In the next election, any new party has no chance whatsoever. But if they start now, 10-15 years later, things may change. Politics is a long game. Who knows, someday Mahfuj Alam may become Viktor Orbán!"
Viktor Orbán rose to prominence as a staunch anti-Soviet, liberal nationalist democratic student leader in the 1990s.
Zahid Ahsan cautioned against any possible backtracking from the goals of the revolution.
"If the unity that played a vital role in the revolution is broken, and the new party betrays the spirit of the revolution, then I think it will become another footnote in our political chapter."
But there are potential voters who would close their eyes and vote for any new party emerging from the revolution, such as the banker Supria Shabnom Protiva.
"I could never vote in my life. I will cast my first vote for the young party who would love the country, think of the people, and not misuse power."
Or young student Mehedi Hasan Akash, who shed blood in the July Revolution.
"The young generation who restored the people's freedom of speech and overthrew the fascist regime, did it without any expectation of reward. They solely demanded justice for the blood of their brothers and sisters. The students, who shed their blood to ensure the rights of the people, will not disappoint the nation if the responsibility of the country's governance is entrusted to them. The people will welcome them."
Now, if the young revolutionaries form a new party and participate in the next election, will they become a viable force in our parliamentary democracy? We do not know yet. But for now, after years, we love the noise of democracy!